Shop like it's 2020: How to roll back 5 years of inflation at the mall

Shop like it’s 2020: How to roll back 5 years of inflation at the mall

Posted by author February 1, 2025 Shopping

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Prices at the mall are about one-fifth higher now than before the pandemic, thanks to cumulative inflation.

Want to spend like it’s February 2020? Try switching stores.

ALDI, the discount supermarket chain, released a report in January that makes a bold claim: Shoppers can save as much as 36% on groceries by taking their business to ALDI. The analysis compared supermarket prices in five large metro areas.

The report might be self-serving, but it captures the zeitgeist for many shoppers in 2025: Consumers are looking for ways to roll back half a decade of inflation.

“It all depends on where you shop,” said Nicole Prom, a mother of three in Waconia, Minnesota. “In terms of groceries, if someone has been shopping at a high-end store, such as Whole Foods, and switches to a less expensive grocery store, such as Aldi, they could easily beat inflation.”

Beating inflation, in 2025, means finding ways to cut your spending by roughly 22.5%. That’s the cumulative inflation on consumer prices since February 2020, according to the personal finance site Bankrate.

Retailers have ample evidence that consumers are attempting to do exactly that. Discount chains such as Costco, Walmart and T.J. Maxx have seen sales rise. High-end stores, including Macy’s and Kohl’s, have seen sales slide. A 2024 survey by KPMG found that 65% of consumers plan to do more discount shopping.

“What you’re describing is basically ‘downscaling,’” said Jeff Galak, an associate professor of marketing at the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. “When times are tough, you see people moving to discount stores.”

Sensing a sea change, retailers rolled back prices

Sensing a sea change in consumer sensibilities, retailers rolled back prices in 2024. The list includes Aldi, Target, Costco and Ikea, brands that already competed on value.

Prom, the Minnesota mom, has been comparing grocery prices over time at three value-focused chains, Walmart, Aldi and Target. She posts her findings on a site called Easy Family Budgeting.

In late January, Prom compared online prices at Aldi and Walmart to prices for comparable items at two relatively high-end supermarkets: Whole Foods and a local ma-and-pa chain. She found their prices ranged 30% to 40% higher.

“I knew it was more,” she said, “but I was surprised at how much.”

Retail studies show consumers are growing wary not only of rising prices, but also of “shrinkflation,” the widespread practice of putting less stuff in a package to get around raising the price.

Some shoppers switch stores. Others start a rotation.

Some shoppers are indeed switching stores. ALDI says it drew 19 million new shoppers in the past year.

Nineteen million customers “is huge,” said Phil Lempert, a grocery industry analyst. “And most of that is Generation Z and millennials, who are mostly focused on value and quality.”

Other shoppers are rotating stores: Filling part of their shopping list at one chain, part at another, going where prices are lowest. As a result, consumers are spending less time in each store.

Shoppers may also be gravitating to “supercenters,” such as Walmart and Costco, searching for value-priced store brands and the ever-popular volume discount.

Metin Çakır, a professor and director of graduate studies in applied economics at the University of Minnesota, is studying that phenomenon, although he does not yet have hard data to prove it.

Çakır notes another consumer trend, which he calls “cheapflation.” Surging demand for value-priced goods is pushing up their prices. Consequently, and paradoxically, prices are rising faster for low-priced products than for higher-priced alternatives.

Thus, a shopper who switches stores might reap a bit less savings now than a year or two ago.

But switching stores isn’t the only way to beat inflation. Here are some others.

Switch to store brands

Over the decades, store brands have evolved from inferior generics into private-label offerings that compete with name brands on quality and price.

Private label products made up 20.7% of all grocery sales in 2023, in terms of units sold, a record high.

“If you switch to store brands, you’re going to save 20% to 30%,” Lempert said, and quality is uniformly high. “There’s no downside.”

Shop by unit price

Unit price is how much a product costs per ounce or pound or liter. Many supermarkets post unit prices on their shelves.

Comparing unit prices is a great way to root out shrinkflation, and to save money.

“Looking at those unit prices is very important,” said Nailya Ordabayeva, Kelli Questrom Associate Professor in Marketing at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business.

Rotate stores

Consumers are becoming more selective about which items they buy at which stores. If you want to save, consider visiting more than one. One store might offer the best value in private-label cereal. Another might have great prices on frozen entrees. A third might be the perfect destination for paper products.

“This kind of mix-and-matching strategy is a good way to fight inflation when prices are fluctuating so much,” said Kimberly Palmer, a personal finance expert at NerdWallet.  

Become a couponer

Coupons offer an age-old strategy for savings. Experian reports that couponers who put in 10 minutes a week save an average of $7.

Coupon apps abound. Many are free.

“Never pay for coupons,” Lempert said.

But be forewarned: Couponing is not easy. Successful couponers “are working hard at finding deals,” said Galak of Carnegie Mellon.

Show your loyalty

Most retail chains have loyalty programs. Joining is a great way to save money here and there, “especially if you’re going to a new store,” Palmer said.