Recency bias is a wild, wild thing.

The Houston Texans could perhaps best be described as the NFL’s belle of the ball, a widely lauded team that’s currently going around as a niche Super Bowl pick given their overperformance in the 2023 NFL season and their spring acquisitions of perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs and former All-Pro pass-rusher Danielle Hunter.

The praise is not misplaced, as the Texans are objectively one of the NFL’s most promising long-term teams. Quarterback C.J. Stroud looked stellar as a rookie, with he and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans surprisingly dragging the recent bottom-dweller to their first divisional title since 2019. With the general roster looking stronger and both Stroud and Ryans having a year of experience under their respective belts, there’s reason to believe Houston may be even better in the 2024 campaign than it was last year; that said, there comes a time when the hype is perhaps too loud.

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We’ve perhaps reached that point as we reach the final days of the offseason’s annual lull, as Stroud, per DraftKings, now has the second-highest odds amongst all players to win the NFL MVP Award in the upcoming season. He has +850 odds, second to only Kansas City Chiefs passer Patrick Mahomes (+450); Sports Illustrated writer Jennifer Piacenti notes that Stroud has jumped ahead of both Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Cincinnati Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow, who each have +900 odds.

The issue isn’t Stroud having strong odds to win the NFL MVP Award, as he’s objectively a strong candidate. The former second-overall draft pick did not look at all a rookie in his debut season, passing for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just five interceptions as spearheaded the reshaping of the Texans’ national perception. That said, it’s difficult to genuinely argue that he was better than Allen; the Buffalo signal-caller (though he appeared in two more games) passed for more yards and touchdowns than Stroud and dwarfed his rushing production. Allen led the NFL in total touchdowns last season with 44, this compared to Stroud’s 26.

Looking past their 2023 production and to the topic at hand, it, again, would be difficult to argue that Stroud was more valuable to his team in the 2024 season than Allen was to Buffalo should the Texans and Bills construct similar records throughout the campaign. Stroud’s receiving corps, on paper, is significantly stronger and more proven than Allen’s; Nico Collins emerged as a true primary option in 2023 (catching 80 passes for 1,297 yards) while rookie Tank Dell looked electric prior to his mid-season fibula fracture. Buffalo fans need no reminder of Diggs’ proficiency. 

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Compare this to the Bills’ receiving corps, and you can see the difference in what the two quarterbacks are working with. Buffalo’s primary weapons figure to be second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid, third-year contributor Khalil Shakir, and rookie Keon Coleman; there’s a combined 1,445 NFL receiving yards amongst that trio. Curtis Samuel is a promising former second-round pick who has found success under Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady in the past, but he’s never sniffed 1,000 receiving yards. There are talented players and reasons for optimism amongst Buffalo’s weapons corps, but any Western New Yorker would be lying if they told you that wouldn’t rather have Houston’s targets at their disposal.

And that’s what makes Stroud’s placement above Allen in terms of NFL MVP odds a bit strange—assuming both achieve comparable individual and team success in 2024, Allen’s feat would objectively be more impressive, and more valuable, than that of Stroud. The second-year passer would have to dramatically outplay the veteran in order to garner more votes, and that simply doesn’t seem a likely scenario at this juncture.

Stroud is absolutely deserving of favorable odds to earn the NFL MVP Award this season, but it simply seems premature to see him with better odds than a player who has earned NFL MVP votes in three of the past four seasons. Stroud and Allen will attempt to put their respective arguments for the award on display when the Texans host the Bills in Week 5 of the 2024 campaign.

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