Saturday NFL best bets: Top player props, anytime TD scorers for Ravens vs. Steelers

Posted by Admin December 21, 2024 NFL

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The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are meeting on Saturday for the second time in the NFL season. The Week 16 matchup could decide which squad wins the AFC North.

Pittsburgh’s goal on Saturday is simple. If the Steelers (10-4) win, they will clinch the AFC North, as they will have a two-game lead on the Ravens in the division standings while also owning a season-sweep of them head-to-head.

If the Ravens (9-5) win, the Steelers will still have a slight edge in the tiebreaker categories, but the two teams will have identical records. That would set up a two-week sprint for the AFC North title.

Lamar Jackson will also be looking to exorcise some of his demons in this matchup. The two-time MVP is enjoying another great season, but he continues to struggle in his matchups against the Steelers. He completed just 16-of-33 for 207 yards, one touchdown and one interception in Baltimore’s loss against Pittsburgh earlier in the season.

Who can you bet on in the Week 16 Ravens vs. Steelers game? Here are some player props and anytime TD bets to consider for the Week 16 Saturday clash between divisional rivals.

NFL best bets: Ravens vs. Steelers

All odds are via BetMGM as of Thursday.

Mark Andrews OVER 3.5 receptions (+115)

The Steelers defense doesn’t have too many weaknesses, but one area in which it struggles is to contain tight ends. Pittsburgh has allowed 76 receptions to tight ends this season, which is good for the 10th-most in the NFL. That includes 32 over their last five games (6.4 per game), so that could allow Andrews to have a big game.

Andrews has recorded five-plus catches in three of his last five outings. Granted, he failed to do so in his team’s Week 11 matchup with the Steelers, but his counterpart, Isaiah Likely, led the team with four catches and 75 yards in that contest. If the Steelers pay more attention to Likely in this contest, that could open things up for Andrews.

Either way, Andrews figures to see a solid amount of targets. He ranks third on the team in targets (53) and second in receptions (45) while sporting the ninth-best catch rate (84.9%) in the entire league. That consistency will continue to earn him looks from Jackson, especially in a matchup the Ravens need to win to stay alive in the AFC North race.

Najee Harris UNDER 48.5 rushing yards (-110)

Only two NFL teams have allowed less than 1,000 rushing yards to running backs this year. They are the Kansas City Chiefs (885) and the Ravens (893). That spells trouble for Harris in this matchup.

Harris is averaging just 49.8 rushing yards per game over his last six outings and hasn’t exceeded 75 yards in that span. He is averaging just 3.22 yards per carry during that stretch, so it’s hard to imagine him getting the volume or breaking the longer runs needed to go over this total. That will be especially true if the Ravens jump out to a lead and Pittsburgh is forced to come from behind in this contest.

Lamar Jackson anytime TD (+200)

It’s safe to assume that Jackson has heard a lot about his less-than-stellar career stats against the Steelers in the week leading up to this game. He has just a 2-5 record in seven starts against them with eight interceptions, tied for his most against one team with the Cleveland Browns, and a passer rating of just 66.7.

Below are Jackson’s full career stats against the Steelers:

Completion rate: 94-165 (56.97%)
Passing yards: 1,077
Passing TDs: 5
INTs: 8
Yards per attempt: 6.53
Passer rating: 66.7
Carries: 57
Rushing yards: 308
Rushing TDs: 0
Yards per carry: 5.4

If one thing stands out about his stat sheet, Jackson has never found the end-zone on the ground against the Steelers. He may look to change that in Week 16, especially if Pittsburgh tries to sell out and stop Derrick Henry like they did the last time these two teams met.

Jackson ran for 46 yards on four carries in that Week 11 clash with the Steelers, so his over rushing total looks like a solid bet. If you’re looking for value, getting +200 odds on a Jackson score is a sensible risk.

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD (+300)

Freiermuth has scored in three consecutive games. Can he make it a fourth? George Pickens‘ absence might help him in his quest to do so.

Pickens has missed the Steelers’ last two games with a hamstring injury. During each of those contests, Freiermuth has seen two red-zone targets. He should continue to operate as Russell Wilson‘s primary target in that area of the field, with Pickens set to miss another game.

The Ravens have allowed the seventh-most receptions to tight ends (78) and sixth-most receiving yards (860), so they can be leaky against the position. They have only allowed three touchdowns, but given that Freiermuth is, effectively, Wilson’s No. 1 pass-catching weapon, this seems like a good spot and solid matchup to back him.