Saturday NFL best bets: Top player props, anytime TD scorers for Chiefs vs. Texans

Posted by Admin December 21, 2024 NFL

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The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans are facing off in the NFL’s first Saturday game of the 2024 season in what should be a good test for each side ahead of the NFL playoffs.

The Chiefs (13-1) have the NFL’s best record and have already clinched the AFC West title. However, they are facing a difficult stretch of three games in 11 days ahead of the league’s Christmas doubleheader and are dealing with an injury to starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes is dealing with a mild high-ankle sprain he suffered in Week 15 against the Cleveland Browns. The injury may not keep him out of action, but if he plays, Andy Reid and Co. will closely monitor his mobility as Kansas City looks to increase its chances of getting the No. 1 seed while preparing for the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Texans (9-5) have also clinched a division title in the AFC South despite having four more losses than the Chiefs. Houston has endured its share of issues this season – its passing offense has been inconsistent, while the Texans’ secondary has a habit of allowing big-time passing plays when their pass rush doesn’t get home – but the team will still have a chance to play at least one home game in the postseason.

Facing the Chiefs and Mahomes will be a good test for the Texans, especially after their impressive showing against the Miami Dolphins. Their defense forced Tua Tagovailoa into a career-high four turnovers and limited Miami’s explosive passing attack to just 12 points.

What are the best bets for the Chiefs vs. Texans game? Here are some player props and anytime TD bets to consider for the Week 16 Saturday clash between AFC contenders.

NFL best bets: Chiefs vs. Texans

All odds are via BetMGM as of Thursday.

Xavier Worthy OVER 3.5 receptions (-125)

Worthy has recently become increasingly involved in the Chiefs’ offense and saw a career-high 11 targets in the team’s Week 15 win over the Browns. He has made at least four catches in five consecutive games, and it seems likely that he will keep that streak going in Week 16.

Worthy figures to be a big part of Kansas City’s plan to negate Houston’s strong pass rush. The Texans are generating pressure on 23.9% of snaps, good for the ninth-most in the NFL. The Chiefs have struggled to block at left tackle and if Mahomes plays with a balky ankle, that could prevent him from moving around to escape pressure.

The solution to that? Andy Reid could include more quick passes to Worthy, especially early in the game. The speed merchant could help slow down Will Anderson and Co. by getting the ball quickly on the perimeter and trying to use his elusiveness to make men miss.

Worthy has already seen 48 of his 74 targets this season come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, so that type of role would line up with his usage. Expect him to get enough short-distance targets to easily exceed this mark. He may even do so in the first half if all goes well.

Joe Mixon UNDER 59.5 rushing yards (-115)

Only two teams in the NFL have allowed less than 1,000 rushing yards to running backs this year. They are the Chiefs (885) and the Baltimore Ravens (893). That doesn’t bode well for Mixon’s chances over the next two weeks.

Mixon has run for 46 yards or less in three of his last five games and is averaging just 3.31 yards over that stretch. Given that the Chiefs have allowed less than 100 yards rushing in five of their last eight games, it’s hard to imagine Mixon having much success, especially as he nurses an ankle injury.

Dalton Schultz OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-110)

The Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but their weakness has come against tight ends in 2024. Kansas City has allowed a league-high 1,045 receiving yards to tight ends this season on 89 receptions, second-most in the NFL.

With that in mind, Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik may try to scheme up more opportunities for Schultz in this contest. He is averaging just 31.2 receiving yards per game this season, his lowest since 2019, but his average has ticked up to 38.6 yards per game over his last five outings. He has recorded at least 60 yards twice in that span, so backing him in this spot seems sensible.

Those worried that Schultz won’t have the opportunities to exceed this yardage total can consider backing him to score a touchdown. The +400 odds are much longer, indicating it is far less likely to happen, but it’s a better value considering how the Chiefs have performed against tight ends this year.

Noah Gray anytime TD (+310)

Travis Kelce is still the Chiefs’ top tight end, but Gray has also emerged as a legitimate threat in the passing game. Gray has become a red-zone threat in recent weeks and has racked up five touchdowns over his last five games, while Kelce hasn’t found the end zone once.

The reason for this is simple. Teams spend so much time accounting for Kelce in the passing game that they often lose track of Gray. That allows him to get open, and Mahomes has been able to find him frequently as a result.

Kelce (+200) still has shorter odds to score than Gray because he is more heavily targeted and talented than Kansas City’s No. 2 tight end. Even so, Gray has seen six red-zone targets in his last five games and figures to continue getting opportunities in a solid matchup. That makes him the most appealing value bet for this contest at +310 odds.