With four games left in the season, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is ahead of the pace he’d need to keep to break the NFL record for rushing yards in a season. But on Sunday he faces the toughest run defense remaining on the Eagles’ schedule.

The Steelers’ defense ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, and they’ve only allowed a 100-yard rusher once this season. (Tyrone Tracy of the Giants in Week Eight.) Barkley won’t have an easy time staying ahead of record pace on Sunday.

Barkley currently has 1,623 rushing yards through 13 games. To stay on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s NFL record of 2,105 yards in a season, Barkley needs 111 yards on Sunday. If he hits 111 exactly, he’d be on pace to finish the season with 2,106 yards. A 111-yard game for Barkley is no big thing, but against the Steelers’ defense it would be.

The good news for Barkley is that in the final three seasons he faces the Commanders, Cowboys and Giants, who have three of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Barkley gained a total of 388 yards in the Eagles’ previous games with those three opponents this season, and in two of those three games he left early because the Eagles were winning in a blowout. If Barkley falls behind record pace on Sunday against the Steelers, he’ll have a great chance to gain ground on Dickerson in the final three weeks of the season. And if Barkley is still ahead of Dickerson’s pace after Sunday’s game against the Steelers, the odds are very good that the record will be his.