The Boise State Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the Group of 5 College Football Playoff bid. 

They’re now 6-1 after a hard-nosed win over UNLV last week.

The Broncos’ only loss was against AP No. 1 Oregon on a last-second field goal. 

Boise State is a fantastic team led by a Heisman favorite in running back Ashton Jeanty and a consistently improving quarterback in Maddux Madsen. 

A fully healthy, motivated Broncos team would have no issues rolling over the 3-4 San Diego State Aztecs.

All that said, I question whether the Broncos are healthy or motivated for Friday’s showdown. 

Read on for my San Diego State vs Boise State odds, predictions & picks for their Week 10 college football game on Friday, November 1.

San Diego State vs. Boise State odds

San Diego State vs. Boise State prediction

(8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)

Regarding motivation, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boise sleepwalks through this game after an emotional win last week. 

Regarding health, Jeanty looks banged up.

He seemed to have injured his left arm in the first half against UNLV, and he proceeded to post his worst stat line of the year (33 carries, 128 yards, 3.9 yards per carry). 

I wouldn’t be surprised if head coach Spencer Danielson limited Jeanty’s usage as a 24-point favorite against a vastly inferior opponent.

Obviously, that would considerably downgrade Boise State’s rushing attack. 

Madsen stepped up during Jeanty’s letdown against UNLV, but I’m still skeptical of his upside as a passer. 

San Diego State’s front seven is weak, but the secondary is half-decent, ranking 26th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed and 27th in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades.

A limited Jeanty bodes well for the Aztec defense, given Boise would have to target over the top more. 

Unfortunately, I have zero faith in the Aztec offense, which ranks 118th nationally in Success Rate (37%) and second-to-last in average third-down distance to go (8.4 yards).

Head coach Sean Lewis is regarded as an intelligent offensive coach, but he hasn’t done anything with quarterback Danny O’Neil. 

San Diego State vs. Boise State pick

I’m banking on a lower-scoring ballgame. 

Although Boise’s defense is flawed, San Diego State can’t consistently move the ball against anybody – the Aztecs have averaged 332 yards per game at 5.1 yards per play in their three road games this season. 

Meanwhile, I expect a limited offensive effort from Boise State.

The Broncos likely want to build a first-half margin, hold on to the ball in the second half and exit the game healthy. 

Betting on College Football?

At the minimum, we can expect a rush-heavy game script.

Boise State likes to lean on Jeanty, while San Diego State’s most talented offensive playmaker is running back Marquez Cooper (748 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, eight touchdowns this season).

These two offenses rank in the top 40 nationally in rush rate over expected. 

A rush-heavy game script will keep the clock churning, leaving limited time for scoring. 

My numbers project the over/under around 56, but that’s factoring in a healthy Jeanty. Given the context and the matchup, under 57 or better is worth a play. 

Pick: Under 57.5 (-110, BetMGM) | Play to Under 57 (-110)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.