Carlos Alcaraz vs. Hubert Hurkacz is without question the headline semifinal match in Rotterdam on Saturday. Whoever wins will go up against either Alex de Minaur or Mattia Bellucci in the final on Sunday afternoon.

(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (8) Hubert Hurkacz

Alcaraz and Hurkacz will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the ABN AMRO title match on Saturday. All three of their previous meetings have gone Alcaraz’s way, but all with difficulty. The Spaniard prevailed 7-6(5), 7-6(2) in the 2022 Miami semis, 3-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(3) at the 2023 Toronto Masters, and 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 in the 2023 Cincinnati semis.

A move to an indoor hard court should be just what the doctor ordered for Hurkacz in his effort to finally get over the hump. Up to his usual tricks on a fast surface, the world No. 21 was broken only once in the first three rounds while defeating Flavio Cobolli, Jiri Lehecka (via second-set retirement), and Andrey Rublev. Alcaraz has also dropped one set this week, as he beat Botic van de Zandschulp in three before easing past Andrea Vavassori and Pedro Martinez. The top seed could not have asked for a better draw at a tournament that was absolutely stacked when it begin, but that good fortune comes to an end with Hurkacz on the other side of the net. In these conditions, the Pole should have a great shot at an upset. It’s worth noting that Alcaraz owns 16 ATP titles in his career and zero have come indoors.

Pick: Hurkacz in 3

(3) Alex de Minaur vs. (Q) Mattia Bellucci

De Minaur is coming off a stellar 2024 campaign that ended in Nitto ATP Finals participation. It looks like more of the same will continue this season, as the eighth-ranked Australian is 10-1 with a semifinal run in Melbourne and Rotterdam victories over David Goffin, Jakub Mensik, and Daniel Altmaier. De Minaur has not come close to even losing a set.

Up next for the third seed is a surprising matchup with Bellucci, who is enjoying the best week of his career. The 23-year-old Italian qualified for the main draw with a pair of blowouts and has since knocked off Mees Rottgering, Daniil Medvedev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Bellucci is playing great, but De Minaur is going to make him hit a ton of balls and that won’t be easy in the biggest match of his life. Count on De Minaur rolling into the championship match.

Pick: De Minaur in 2