The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the Western Conference have both advanced to the semifinals of the NBA Cup in Las Vegas on Saturday, after the Houston Rockets pulled off a comeback win over the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night.

These teams matched up back on Dec. 1 – playing an absolute barnburner – with Houston eventually pulling out a three-point win at home.

OKC, who knocked off Dallas in the quarterfinals of the NBA Cup, will look to avenge that loss as a five-point favorite on a neutral court in Las Vegas. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company have won four in a row and are off to an impressive 19-5 start, but these teams are very similar in that they hang their hat on the defensive end – ranking No. 1 and No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating.

With a trip to the NBA Cup Finals on the line, here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my best bet for Saturday night’s matchup. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Rockets Injury Report

Thunder Injury Report

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

Houston Rockets big man Alperen Sengun went off against Golden State on Wednesday, scoring 26 of the team’s 91 points while grabbing 11 rebounds. He also dished out five dimes and picked up three steals in the win.

So far this season, Sengun’s scoring is a little down compared to last season, but he’s averaging an impressive 10.6 rebounds per game. That’s where I plan on backing him in the prop market on Saturday, 

Oklahoma City is a great defensive team, but it struggles on the glass, allowing 47.9 opponent rebounds per game (29th in the NBA) and it ranks 28th in the league in rebounding percentage.

Earlier this season, Sengun had 14 boards in a win over OKC, and he’s had 17 games (out of 25) with at least 10 boards. That gives him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop on Saturday night. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Sticking with the theme of betting on big men, Oklahoma City Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein has been terrific after missing the start of the season with a fractured hand.

The former New York Knick is averaging 11.6 points, 12.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 55.4 percent from the field. He had a strong showing against Houston earlier this season, putting up 19 points, 13 rebounds and four dimes in 30:02 of playing time.

I am targeting Hartenstein’s assists and rebounds prop on Saturday, as he’s averaging 17.1 combined assists and rebounds per game. Outside of a five-rebound showing against Utah, Hartenstein has at least 10 boards in every other game this season.

He’s also dished out at least three assists in every game, giving him a terrific floor against a stingy Houston defense. 

He should handle a major workload with the Thunder looking to slow down Alperen Sengun tonight. 

This game should have a playoff atmosphere in Las Vegas, and even though these teams combined for 235 points in their first meeting this season, I’m looking to the UNDER on Saturday.

Houston and Golden State combined for just 181 points in Wednesday’s NBA Cup game, and the Thunder held Dallas to just 104 points in their NBA Cup clash on Tuesday.

As I mentioned earlier, these are the two best defensive teams in the NBA right now, and they don’t play at a crazy pace either. While they both rank in the top half of the NBA in pace – OKC is 10th and Houston is 14th – the UNDER has hit in 13 of the Thunder’s 24 games and 12 of Houston’s 25 games (12-12-1) this season. 

Both of these teams have been too good against the spread (Houston is 5-2 ATS as a dog, OKC is 14-9 ATS as a favorite) for me to pick a side on Saturday.

Expect both of these teams to lean on their defense with a trip to the NBA Cup Final on the line. 

Pick: UNDER 215.5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.