Sebastian Baez is one win away from going back-to-back at the Rio Open.

It won’t be easy, however, against an opponent who has been on fire this week–and really this entire season.

Alexander Muller has already captured one ATP title in 2025–the first of his career in Hong Kong–and he is back in another final in Rio de Janeiro. The 60th-ranked Frenchman is now 9-2 for the year following wins this week over Joao Fonseca, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Francisco Cerundolo, and Francisco Comesana. What looked like a pretty bad loss for Fonseca in round one has suddenly become very explicable.

Meanwhile, this ATP 500 in Rio has to be considered Baez’s favorite tournament on tour. The 31st-ranked Argentine is 11-1 in his last 12 main-draw matches at this event with a title 12 months ago and victories this week over Roman Andres Burruchaga, Mariano Navone, Chun-Hsin Tseng, and Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Baez dropped a set (his second one of the week) to Ugo Carballi on Saturday afternoon but dominated the second and third 6-1, 6-1.

Muller is coming off a two-hour and 55-minute battle with Comesana on Saturday night. Fatigue will be less of a factor for Baez, plus he has the experience edge as the defending champion–so look for the No. 5 seed to triumph once again on Quadra Guga Kuerten.

Pick: Baez in 3