With the ICC Men’s Champions Trophy 2025 just around the corner, India’s chances of clinching the title have come under scrutiny, as uncertainty looms over the fitness of pace spearhead, and ICC 2024 Men’s Cricketer of the Year, Jasprit Bumrah. Cricket legends Ricky Ponting and Ravi Shastri believe that the potential absence of Bumrah could significantly weaken India’s campaign, reducing their chances of winning by nearly 30-35%. Bumrah, who had a phenomenal 2024, was recently crowned the ICC Men’s Cricketer of the Year and ICC Men’s Test Cricketer of the Year at the ICC Awards. He was instrumental in India’s victorious Men’s T20 World Cup campaign and had a stellar season across formats.

However, a back spasm sustained during the Sydney Test against Australia in January has kept him out of action since. While he has been named in India’s initial Champions Trophy squad, his absence from the upcoming three-match ODI series against England has raised concerns over his fitness.

Former India head coach Ravi Shastri, speaking on The ICC Review, strongly advised against rushing Bumrah back into the side, highlighting the risk involved. He stressed that India has a busy international calendar ahead, and risking their premier fast bowler for a single tournament could have long-term consequences.

“I think it’s high risk. There’s too much big cricket coming up for India,” Shastri told Sanjana Ganesan on The ICC Review.

“At this stage of his career, I think he’s too precious to be just called on for one game out of the blue and asked to deliver. The expectations will be so much. They’ll think that he’ll come in straight away and set the world on fire. It’s never that easy when you come back from injury.”

Shastri also emphasised how vital Bumrah is to India’s Champions Trophy aspirations, adding that his absence would be a massive blow to the team’s plans.

“Bumrah not fit will reduce India’s chances of winning the Champions Trophy by 30%, literally by 30-35%,” he said. “With a fully fit Bumrah playing, you are guaranteed those death overs. It would’ve been a different ball game altogether.”

Former Australia captain Ricky Ponting echoed Shastri’s concerns, noting that Bumrah’s workload in the recent Border-Gavaskar Trophy may have contributed to his injury. Ponting believes that the spotlight now shifts to Mohammed Shami, who has returned from his own injury layoff and featured in India’s recent limited-overs series against England.

“My biggest concern about India when they came for Australia in the Test series was Bumrah not having Shami there as a backup and him having to burden most of the load,” Ponting said on The ICC Review.

“And that’s probably what happened, and might even have something to do with why he [Bumrah] got hurt. He probably ended up having to bowl a bit more in that series with Shami not being there.”

However, Ponting believes Shami’s return is a positive sign for India. The veteran pacer has shown glimpses of his best, including an impressive spell of 3/25 in the fourth T20I against England. His performance in the upcoming ODI series will be closely monitored to determine whether he can handle the demands of a full 10-over spell in 50-over cricket.

Shastri also weighed in on Shami’s comeback, emphasising that his fitness and endurance will be tested in the upcoming ODIs against England.

“It will be interesting to see if India play him out in all three, or they give him the first one and the third one, and then ease him into the Champions Trophy,” Shastri said.

“But he’ll be watched very closely because 10 overs is totally different to four overs, and then you’re going to see how he pulls up in the field as well having bowled those 10 overs.”

Shami last played an ODI for India in the 2023 ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup final against Australia, where he finished as the tournament’s highest wicket-taker. His ability to stay fit and bowl full spells in the Champions Trophy will be crucial for India, especially if Bumrah is not available.

India will begin their ICC Men’s Champions Trophy 2025 campaign against Bangladesh on February 20 in Dubai. With conditions likely to favor fast bowlers early on, a fully fit pace attack featuring Bumrah and Shami would be a major advantage for India.