The Grade 2, $1.25 million Rebel Stakes, originally scheduled for Saturday, will be run on Sunday because of winter weather. The Rebel is the third of four stops on the Oaklawn road to Kentucky Derby 2025, and 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points are available to the top five finishers.

The Rebel, which will be run at 1 1/16 miles, drew a full field of 14 that includes eight 3-year-olds who already have earned Derby points. In that group are the winners of the first two Derby preps at Oaklawn. Coal Battle won the Springboard Mile at Remington Park and the Smarty Jones, and Speed King got the Southwest (G3) victory.

Here is the analysis for the Rebel with the official track morning-line odds. It is scheduled as race 11 of 12 with post time set for 6:23 p.m. EST.

1. Coal Battle, 10-1. Coal Front – Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas – 6: 4-0-0 – $453,875. Coal Battle won his last three starts in stakes races going back to November with the Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs and then his two victories on the Kentucky Derby trail in the Remington Mile and the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. That gives Coal Battle 20 Derby points. After coming from behind in his first two stakes wins, he was on the front end in the Smarty Jones. Win contender.

2. Admiral Dennis, 12-1. Constitution – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 4: 2-0-1 – $119,800. Admiral Dennis was the favorite in his four starts and won twice. He was a maiden winner in his second race at Churchill Downs. Admiral Dennis moved onto the Derby trail in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds where he ran fourth after a poor start and earned 2 Derby points. In January he returned to the winner’s circle in an allowance against a field of seven. Brad Cox won the Rebel last year with Timberlake. Use underneath.

3. Sandman, 4-1. Tapit – Mark Casse / Cristian Torres – 6: 2-1-1 – $344,595. Sandman got his maiden victory at Saratoga in his second start and then moved onto the Derby trail, where he accumulated 14 points from three appearances. In the Iroquois (G2) at Churchill he closed from the back of a big field to get to fifth, and he was third in the Street Sense (G3). To end his 2-year-old campaign he had a confidence-building allowance victory at Oaklawn. He ran the best race of his career to start 2025 when he was second in the Southwest (G3) behind Speed King after breaking in a tangle. Win contender.

4. Hypnus, 10-1. Into Mischief – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 1: 1-0-0 – $36,000. Hypnus will make a big jump in class onto the Derby trail to face this large field after breaking his maiden at first asking on a sloppy and sealed track at Fair Grounds last month. Toss.

5. Madaket Road, 9-2. Quality Road – Bob Baffert / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 3: 1-1-1 – $80,000. Madaket Road finished third in the Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar to start his career and was 7-2 in that field of five. He was a maiden winner in his second start after a stalking trip. He moved onto the Derby trail and was third behind his stablemates Citizen Bull and Rodriguez and earned 6 Derby points. From 2010 to 2021, Baffert won the Rebel eight times, including with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. Win contender.

6. Publisher, 20-1. American Pharoah – Steve Asmussen / Flavien Prat – 5: M-0-3 – $77,756. Publisher raced four times in maidens with a trio of third-place finishes and a second. Then he jumped onto the Derby trail in the Southwest, where he was moved up to sixth after getting jammed up at the eighth-pole. Asmussen has won this race four times, including with Curlin in 2007. Toss.

7. Dreaminblue, 15-1. Street Boss – Randy Morse / Francisco Arrieta – 4: 1-1-1 – $99,500. Dreaminblue overcame traffic to break his maiden in his fourth try when he closed from mid-pack after running into traffic in a six-furlong sprint. He had Lasix for the first time in that Oaklawn victory in January. Toss.

8. Innovator, 15-1. Authentic – D. Wayne Lukas / Tyler Bacon – 8: 1-4-1 – $197,555. Innovator ran eight times already, which is not unusual for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He has only one career victory but made three appearances in stakes races. In his Derby trail debut in the Lecomte (G3) he set the pace and finished third and picked up 6 Derby points. Lukas has two prior victories in the Rebel, most recently in 2013 with future champion Will Take Charge. Toss.

9. Smoken Wicked, 8-1. Bobby’s Wicked One – Dallas Stewart / Tyler Gaffalione – 8: 4-1-1 – $307,542. Smoken Wicked won his last three races, two in Louisiana-bred stakes races sprinting at Fair Grounds and a seven-furlong allowance at Churchill. In October he was fourth in the Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct when he was unable to press the pace. He did get 2 Derby points in New York. Toss.

10. Bullard, 5-1. Gun Runner – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli – 3: 2-0-1 – $129,000. Bullard won his first two starts at Del Mar in his debut and then by almost five lengths in the Bob Hope. He was third behind Barnes in the San Vicente (G2) and a half-length out of second. Win contender.

11. Speed King, 6-1. Volatile – Ron Moquett / Rafael Bejarano – 3: 2-1-0 – $669,000. Speed King can be considered one of the local horses for Oaklawn regular Ron Moquett. He was a debut winner at Churchill in November and then set the pace in the Springboard Mile before he got caught by Coal Battle. In the Southwest he went right to the lead and stayed there and now has 25 Derby points. Top choice.

12. Brereton’s Baytown, 50-1. Upstart – Paul McEntee / Joseph Bealmear – 9: 2-0-0 – $54,523. Brereton’s Baytown was uncompetitive in his six starts but came back after a four-month layoff to finally break his maiden at Charles Town. Three weeks ago he won a $40,000 claimer at Laurel Park. Toss.

13. Tiztastic, 8-1. Tiz the Law – Steve Asmussen / Jose Ortiz – 6: 2-1-2 – $909,800. Tiztastic ran three times on the Derby trail with a trouble-filled third in the Southwest. He was also third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and was second in the Street Sense. His only wins were on the turf at Kentucky Downs in a maiden and then the rich Juvenile Mile. Those top-three finishes earned Tiztastic 14 Derby points. Win contender.

14. Hot Gunner, 50-1. Exaggerator – Scott Young / Harry Hernandez – 8: 2-0-2 – $80,900. Hot Gunner was a debut winner at Lone Star Park in July and then ran six times in four stakes and two allowances, finishing no better than third. In January he won an allowance at Sam Houston. Toss.

Summary: The projector says a fast pace is expected in the Rebel and that Speed King has a chance to get loose on the lead. Among the other win contenders, Coal Battle, Tiztastic and Madaket Road are mid-pack runners, Bullard is a closer and Sandman is a deep closer.

If Speed King can get loose on the lead again as he did to win the Southwest, then he will be in the ideal position in this field of 14. His three starts were faster each time, and his Southwest speed figure tops the field. The rest of the field will have to avoid traffic and work out an uneventful trip. At 6-1 in the morning line, I will pick Speed King as my top choice to hold off the late runners.