There’s a great deal of talent atop the heap at running back. Nevertheless, some running backs will be undervalued and outperform their average draft position (ADP).

A surge in touchdowns is one way to finish as an RB1. However, a path to a featured role, which includes catching passes, is a more predictable route for fantasy football value. The two forthcoming running backs have the requisite skills to handle featured roles, giving them the potential to be RB1s in 2025.

RB3s With RB1 Potential

Jaylen Warren (RB – FA)

Jaylen Warren is a restricted free agent and Najee Harris is an unrestricted free agent. Thus, the Steelers can match Warren’s offer sheet from another club. Harris could also return, but the team declined his fifth-year option last May, so Pittsburgh might not be as inclined to re-up Harris.

This year’s NFL Draft running back class is well-regarded by many prospect evaluators. Even if Warren re-signs with the Steelers and Harris signs elsewhere, Warren could still face stiff competition via the draft. Nonetheless, a mid or late-round pick at running back wouldn’t be as imposing a threat to Warren’s possible spot atop Pittsburgh’s depth chart if he returns to the organization.

He didn’t have an optimal beginning to the 2024 season. According to Draft Sharks, Warren suffered a thigh and hamstring strain in the preseason and a knee sprain in Week 3. He performed well after Pittsburgh’s Week 9 bye.

According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Warren had the following stats in his final 10 games in 2024:

• 81 rush attempts (8.1 per game)
• 366 rushing yards (36.6 per game)
• 4.52 yards per carry
• 2.96 yards after contact per attempt
• 0.16 missed tackles forced per attempt
• 37.0% stuff rate
• 1 rushing touchdown
• 42.7% route participation
• 11.6% target share
• 0.23 targets per route run
• 30 receptions (3.0 per game)
• 262 receiving yards (26.2 per game)
• 1.69 yards per route run
• 0 receiving touchdowns

Warren’s rushing profile is thinner than the typical fantasy football RB1. However, over 60 scrimmage yards and three receptions per game are a decent foundation. Furthermore, Warren had 17 opportunities (rushes plus targets) and over 90 scrimmage yards in two of his final four games in 2024.

Warren has a post-Melvin Gordon-era Austin Ekeler-like path to a top-12 RB fantasy finish in half-PPR and full-PPR formats in 2025 if things break ideally. Either in Pittsburgh or with another organization with an Ekeler-like vision for Warren.

J.K. Dobbins (RB – FA)

Injuries have marred J.K. Dobbins’ career. Fortunately, he stayed healthy in 2024 and was second in the NFL AP Comeback Player of the Year voting. Dobbins is an unrestricted free agent after setting new career highs for rush attempts (204) and rushing yards per game (66.5).

Among 72 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts in 2024 (including the postseason), Dobbins was 16th in rushing yards per game (66.5), tied for 22nd in yards per carry (4.56), tied for 25th in explosive run rate (4.9%), tied for 14th in rushing touchdowns (nine) and was 22nd in expected half-PPR points per game (13.4).

Dobbins didn’t move the needle a ton in the passing game. Still, he was competent. Dobbins had a 41.7% route participation rate, a 1.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 0.18 targets per route run, 32 receptions (2.3 per game), 153 receiving yards (10.9 per game) and zero receiving touchdowns.

He can also be trusted on the field to protect the quarterback. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), 70 running backs or fullbacks had at least 40 pass-blocking snaps in 2024 — Dobbins was seventh in their pass-blocking grade.

I expect a reunion with the Chargers in free agency. According to Over the Cap, the Chargers can save $3.125 million, with only $1.125 million in dead money, by cutting Gus Edwards after an inefficient season. Retaining Dobbins would allow the Chargers to wait for a running back in this year’s deep draft class.

Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Todd Monken weren’t shy about feeding Dobbins after he returned from a four-game absence on the injured reserve (IR), giving him 21 and 20 touches in the final two games of the regular season before getting blown out in the playoffs.

If Dobbins returns to the Chargers he could be the featured back in an ascending offense. As a result, Dobbins has low-end RB1 potential in his range of outcomes.

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