The Toronto Raptors are rebuilding. The Toronto Raptors are a fun basketball team. Both of these statements can be true.

This fun and rebuilding team will attempt to put up their best effort when they welcome Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks to The Six on Saturday night.

My Raptors vs. Mavericks predictions break down why Scottie Barnes will have to stuff the stat sheet if Toronto wants to keep this one close.

Check out my NBA picks for this matchup below.

Raptors vs Mavericks prediction

My Raptors pick
Scottie Barnes Over 8.5 Rebounds (-105 at PointsBet Canada)

My analysis

Yes, the Toronto Raptors are a young and fun team. The Raps were coming off a stretch where they had won five of eight games, continuing to cover spreads going 5-3 ATS. But every now and then, we get reminded of how this is a rebuilding team.

That happened in Toronto’s last game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder asserted their dominance and rumbled over the Raps 129-92 the last time out.

And unfortunately for the Raptors, the Dallas Mavericks come into this matchup playing arguably as well as the Thunder.

This looks like the best version of the Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving experiment yet and the Mavs enter this game winners of 10 of their last 11 overall. The Mavs lead the NBA in net rating over that stretch, and maybe more impressive than that, Dallas ranks eighth in defensive rating for the season.

So yeah, things might be tough on the Raptors tonight and it’s understandable why they are 8.5-point home underdogs for this matchup. But if they want to have any shot of keeping this one close, their best player is going to have to be their best player.

I am, of course, talking about Scottie Barnes. The Raps went 2-9 in 11 games without Barnes earlier this season, and it’s no surprise they’ve played better since his return to the lineup, going 4-4 in those games.

Barnes does it all for the Raps and is averaging 22.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game during that eight-game stretch.

Now, it’s tempting to take the points with the Raptors here but the Mavs are just playing so well and are 10-1 ATS over their last 11 games. 

So, I’ll turn my attention to a Barnes player prop instead. If there is one area where the Mavericks can improve a little bit, it’s on the boards. Dallas ranks a middling 12th in rebounding rate and 14th in opponent rebounds per game.

And you may as well call Barnes Mr. Clean with the way he has been cleaning the glass. Barnes is averaging 10.7 rebounds over his last six games and has hauled down at least 10 boards five times during that period.

I’m backing Barnes to keep being a monster on the boards in this matchup and taking the Over 8.5 on his rebounding prop.

Raptors vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Scottie Barnes Over 8.5 Rebounds

Dereck Lively II 10+ Points

Kyrie Irving 4+ Rebounds

The Raptors are definitely a better defensive team with Scottie Barnes on the court, but they are still getting beat up in the paint. In fact, they rank 21st in opponent points in the paint this season. That has me looking at Dereck Lively II’s point total.

Lively averages 9.1 points per game this season, but his point total for this one is sitting at 8.5, and a matchup with Raps’ big Jakob Poeltl should mean extra minutes for Lively in this one. Give me Lively to hit double digits in the scoring column tonight. Something he has done in four of his last seven games.

But Barnes isn’t the only player I like to have a good night on the boards. Kyrie Irving averages 4.9 rebounds per game, and that is up to 5.7 over his last seven games, where he’s had at least four rebounds in each.

The Raptors are a good rebounding team, but they take a lot of shots and aren’t the most efficient, ranking 23rd in effective field goal percentage. Give my Kyrie to get 4+ rebounds tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Raptors vs Mavericks odds

Raptors vs Mavericks live odds

Raptors vs Mavericks opening odds

• Spread: Toronto -8.5 | Dallas +8.5
• Moneyline: Toronto +300 | Dallas -380
• Over/Under: Over 236 | Under 236

Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada

Raptors vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Raptors opened this matchup as 8.5-point home underdogs and the spread has bounced back and forth between that and +9 as of Saturday afternoon.
• The Raptors have been one of the best bets in the NBA all season long at 15-8 ATS thanks to their high-tempo offense and hustle. Unfortunately, the Mavericks are the hottest bet going in the Association going 10-1 ATS over their last 11 games. 
• The total hit the board at 236. Early bettors jumped on the Over, bringing the number as high as 238 but it has been mostly Under money since dropping the total to the current number of 235.5.
• I tend to agree with the early money. The Raptors by nature are an Over team with their high pace and shaky defense. While the Mavericks have cashed the Under just twice in their last 10 games.

Raptors vs Mavericks trend

The Mavericks have covered the Spread in 50 of their last 78 games dating back to last season for +21.40 Units and a 25% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Mavericks.

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