Welcome back to the NBA’s summer doldrums! With the offseason winding down and several weeks remaining until training camp commences, we basketball fans find ourselves with little else but time to ponder the future. For the Milwaukee Bucks, they opted to reinforce their foundation around Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez, while also retaining (for now, anyway) Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton. With Summer League not too distant in the rearview mirror, it’s fun to theorize about the various prospects on the roster and what contributions they might make… but in all likelihood, a contending team will rely on trusted veterans over unproven youngsters.

To that end, general manager Jon Horst’s plan to restock the Bucks’ depth brought in Taurean Prince and Delon Wright, a pair of capable journeymen who could fill the minutes previously taken by Jae Crowder and Patrick Beverley. Solid players—even younger than the ones they replaced!—that also accepted the minimal money that Milwaukee could muster in order to contribute to a winning effort. Good show by the front office!

And yet, a void remained in the starting lineup, created by the departure of Malik Beasley to Detroit. Having accepted a “modest” contract (1 year, $6 million) that was still more than the Bucks could offer, Beasley took his 41% three-point conversion rate with him, creating a gap for the front office to resolve. After all, with a pair of ball-dominant superstars and one of the sport’s best rim attackers, long-range shooting is a must on this team. How do you recast that role when your only vehicle to add someone is the absolute minimum amount?

As it turns out, you need two Ls: luck and lobbying.

Simply by waiting patiently and keeping faith in Dame’s skills of persuasion, Milwaukee added Gary Trent Jr. on a minimum deal, along with the presumed promise of the starting shooting guard spot. In doing so, the Bucks have added the best individual player they’ve ever signed for that specific, fifth starter role, and it might be enough to turn the postseason tides in Milwaukee’s favor.

Let’s look at Trent on an individual level first. He’s 25 years old, with six years of NBA experience after joining the Portland Trail Blazers as a second-round pick in 2018. He’s listed at 6’6” and 210 pounds and has averaged more than 2,000 minutes played over the last four seasons. He is unabashedly an offense-first player, averaging 17.9 points per 36 minutes in his career, with respectable shooting splits of .422/.386/.819. His role has shifted around, but he remains consistent in his approach: stay in your lane (career usage: 20.4) stretch the floor (career 3PAr: .523) and protect the ball (career turnover rate: 5.2).

That’s a decent player nabbed for the minimum! The Bucks got so fortunate as a consequence of the changes made to the league’s CBA, and how it affected team’s willingness and ability to spend money on free agents. Coming off a season where Trent made $18.5m, there was a wide range of opinions on what sort of contract he could get from teams as they all held off on prioritizing his signing. The market left Trent in a lurch, leading him to choose a season in Milwaukee to revamp his league-wide value in 2025.

But whether or not the Bucks can retain Trent long-term (spoiler: it’s not likely), his addition is eminently worthwhile because of how it raises the team’s ceiling this year. The Bucks have not had a shooting guard like Gary Trent Jr. in a long time, and his versatile presence will allow head coach Doc Rivers to shift player roles and responsibilities in ways the team wasn’t expected to have at their disposal. Additionally, his capacity for a heavier offensive workload will go further to balance the floor and solidify the team’s performance as games pull more of the rotation onto the court. In short, with his signing, Milwaukee just got a lot more dangerous in the playoffs.

Let’s consider now the basketball context in which Trent joins the team. The Bucks have three straight postseason disappointments, highlighted by a pair of first round dispatches at the hands of lower seeded opponents. Injuries to Giannis, Khris, and Dame aside, it’s awfully hard for the 2021 championship to outshine those dark clouds. The Lillard trade last year was meant to solve the problems that had plagued the team the year prior, but the wear and tear of the regular season laid bare the Bucks’ lack of athleticism and surplus of experience (read: they played old) to the point that a bad matchup—like the spunky Indiana Pacers—led to Milwaukee getting run out of the gym.

That was then. Now, with more opportunity to recover (and apparently get double-ankle bypass surgery), it’s expected that the Bucks’ core group will come back healthy for 2024–25. But it’s hard to shake the sense that it isn’t enough; the regular season is an 82 game slog where anything can happen, and anything can go wrong. The existing roster updates don’t completely solve that, and it still remains to be seen whether any of the Bucks’ young prospects can step up. Bringing in Trent goes a lot further to cure what perceived ails the Bucks may have in April, and not just because he’s on the right side of 30. Trent not only fits the “type” that the Bucks have for their 2-guard, but brings more to the table without taking too much away.

Next, let’s compare Gary Trent Jr. to who Milwaukee has previously slotted in at the shooting guard position over the past few years: Malik Beasley (off to the Pistons), Grayson Allen (thriving in Phoenix, and reunited with coach Mike Budenholzer), and Donte DiVincenzo (pitching in as a key member of the Nova Knicks). Based on each player’s reputation, you can already see the similarities between them and how they clearly fit the archetype Milwaukee seeks at the position. During their time in Milwaukee, all of them were younger contributors (early to mid 20s) who very clearly fit a strict definition of “shooting guard.” Each player was capable and comfortable playing off the ball and stretching the floor, generally ceding point guard duties to a teammate.

All of them were also willing shooters, with more than half of all field goal attempts coming from behind the arc (3PAr above .500), and consistent ones to boot (regularly hitting between 38% and 42% of attempts). As a result, each player was a relatively efficient scorer relative to their playing time, exceeding 0.4 points per minute (defined as total points ÷ total minutes), which was the median mark for the league since 2020–21. All of these generalities apply to Trent, making the basic expectations for his fit as a Buck simple to envision.

But here’s where the differences come in. Trent is taller and heavier (by 1–2 inches and 10–15 pounds) than all three, immediately giving him more credibility as a potential defender of wings. Much has been made about Trent’s reputation as a defender based on his gaudy steal totals (is it real? Is it a mirage?), but even if he falls shy of an “average” rating as a perimeter defender, he’ll be a significant step up from the likes of Beasley and Allen. He already excels at avoiding fouls (91st percentile per Cleaning The Glass), but what kind of defender is he? From RaptorsHQ last year:

Historically speaking opponents score more when he’s on the court and shoot a better percentage. The two make some sense. Trent Jr. is a gambler on D, which can have a boom or bust effect on the rest of the team – when Trent gets the ball he’s a catalyst for the Raps dangerous fast-break offense, and when he misses he forces the Raptors into rotations that they can’t always recover from.

It remains to be seen if in a more “vanilla” scheme Trent Jr. would be a better and more consistent defender, but it’s fair to say that his NBA career suggests that he’s fine at that end, no more, and no less.

Perhaps an All-Defensive Team nod is unreasonable to hope for, but steady focus from Trent combined with a stronger fundamental foundation means that Milwaukee’s defense is at least not hurt by his addition to the lineup. He won’t fix all the various flaws the Bucks have at the point-of-attack…but who else in free agency offers that solution?

Switching to offense is where the addition of Trent will really shine. Before even donning a jersey, GTJ is one of the most capable scorers the Bucks have acquired for the shooting guard position. Going by the aforementioned points per minute (PPM) metric, Trent (.512) is by far the most accomplished scorer over the past 4 seasons, followed by Malik Beasley (.487, buoyed mostly by his time as a Timberwolf), Donte DiVincenzo (.412, boosted by a career year in New York), and Grayson Allen (.403, surprisingly low). Admittedly, part of this is due to workload, which Trent’s was undoubtedly higher on a middling Raptors team that lacked top-end offensive talent compared to Milwaukee’s star-laden roster. Volume tends to generate points that way, lending credence to any theory about Trent’s scoring drawing comparisons to empty calories.

But there are opportunities in the Bucks’ offense, if the players can seize them. And with Trent another departure from Milwaukee’s “normal” shooting guard is the balanced approach of his offense, instead of the strict threes-only diet of his predecessors. Over the past 4 seasons, all of DiVincenzo (.656), Allen (.664), and Beasley (.684) have averaged a three-point attempt rate above 65%, meaning that only 35% (or less) of their shots came inside the arc. That tendency might be more efficient, but the defense has a relatively easy time accounting for you if two-thirds of your attempts come from the same regions. Trent is different in this way; since 2020–21, his shot profile is an even split (3PAr of .516) which indicates a unique layer of offensive dynamism.

Now, this isn’t to say that GTJ is über-efficient. It would be ideal if he were, but he’s not a master at getting to the basket; Trent has never had more than 16% of his total field goals happen at the rim (per Cleaning The Glass). The result is that Trent is definitively a two-level scorer reliant on his jump shot; he routinely lands above the 90th percentile for “long midrange” attempts despite moderate success in that area recently (averaging only around 40% accuracy over the last 3 seasons). He was better in his first couple years in the league, suggesting that his true ability in the midrange is yet to be fully utilized. That said, the decision tree available to Trent has an additional branch on it, meaning there are more valid options. Instead of just “shoot” or “pass,” Trent is also capable of putting the ball on the floor and moving further into the defense; even if that ends up with a mid-range shot, Milwaukee’s offensive gravity might be enough to create enough space to make that outcome more positive.

So while he might not match the efficiency of Giannis Antetokounmpo on two-pointers, Trent’s versatility brings with it another tertiary benefit: generating free throws. While still not a strong point for him, Trent shot an average of 152 free throws over the past four seasons; by comparison, Malik Beasley barely averaged 60 attempts from the foul line. This is a minor detail but can add up over time. It might not make up a significant portion of his scoring, but the ability to draw shooting fouls alongside Giannis and Dame is a rising tide that can lift all ships, considering how useful free throws are in manufacturing points, especially when the other team fouls enough to get you into the bonus.

If you’ve gotten this far and you’re not convinced that Gary Trent Jr. is a season-altering signing, you’re likely not alone. There are a number of standalone metrics that suggest, on their face, that GTJ is a talented player, but with such variable scoring outputs and not enough other skills to round out his game. His effective field goal percentage is merely “fine” at 53.4%, significantly boosted by consistently high outcomes on three-pointers. But even then, he’s not the most imposing shooter, given the low marks he gets from the corners compared to above-the-break shots. So why should Bucks fans be excited?

In a word: context. As a Raptor, Trent’s best teammates were Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes. None of those players is a slouch, not by a long shot! In fact, all four of them are important players to the various teams they find themselves on today. But as a Buck, things are different. GTJ is going to be flanked in the starting lineup by Giannis, Dame, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton. The environment in which Trent finds himself will make it so that he’ll likely draw the opponent’s worst perimeter defender, unless the other team wants to set their clocks to Dame Time or punch their ticket on the Tough Shot Express. That shift in difficulty is something that should not go unmentioned, considering how productive Trent has been in the NBA.

So let’s zoom out a little bit and consider Trent’s place as a member of the Milwaukee Bucks. Specifically, let’s fast-forward to the postseason where—barring disaster—Milwaukee should be a high-enough seed to forge a path back to the NBA Finals, and the rotation will tighten up to match the increased level of intensity. As of now, Milwaukee’s postseason rotation will probably look like this:

• PG: Damian Lillard, Delon Wright
• SG: Gary Trent Jr., Pat Connaughton
• SF: Khris Middleton, Taurean Prince
• PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
• C: Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis

Note that all of Milwaukee’s young players (AJ Green, Andre Jackson Jr., MarJon Beauchamp, Chris Livingston, AJ Johnson, and Tyler Smith) are absent from this list; should fortune smile on the Bucks and one (or more!) of these guys proves capable of playing major minutes, they can be subbed in for a veteran (most likely Connaughton) in due time. For now, though, we’ll stick to what we figure an NBA coach would do, which is ride with the experienced hand.

All of a sudden, a healthy Milwaukee team presents some serious matchup problems to any Eastern Conference opponent. The individual brilliance of Giannis and Dame is there. The tough shot-making from Khris Middleton is there. The Giannis-Dame and Giannis-Khris two-man game is there. Brook Lopez is there to stretch the floor and answer the call in the post (when needed). When one of the two primary bigs needs a spell, Bobby Portis and his versatile scoring punch is there. And rounding things out, Delon Wright, Pat Connaughton, and Taurean Prince can at least serve as credible shooting threats and credible defenders in their positions. There are definite weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball (particularly on the perimeter) but any concerns about the offense that aren’t related to individual health or durability are difficult to find.

That is an awful lot of attention that must be paid to players not named Gary Trent Jr. As a member of the starting lineup, he will find himself with room to operate as the defense bends to Giannis’ interior gravity and Dame’s perimeter pull. As a primary scorer with reserves, Trent can fire at will while his teammates pick up slack on defense. He might not be a play-maker, but he doesn’t need to be: the ball will regularly be in the hands of Dame, Giannis, and Khris as the offense runs. As a play-finisher, Trent has more ability than any fifth starter the team has employed in recent years. All of these factors together mean that Milwaukee’s offense has the pieces to become ungovernable, a reality that is unlocked only by Trent accepting a 10x salary decrease for the season.