Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew found 4-1 Worcester winner on Wednesday and has  three stats-based selections on Thursday, October 17th…

BRIGHTON 2.05

PICKERING CASTLE (system – Cityscape, heavy going)

At the time of writing, Brighton’s going was officially ‘soft’ but with plenty of rain forecast on Wednesday afternoon/evening it’s only a matter of time before it changes to ‘heavy’. That could suit turf debutant PICKERING CASTLE, who has shown ability on the all-weather, latterly when a one-length 25-1 third of 13 at Chelmsford. Progeny of his sire Cityscape are nine from 46 on heavy ground (based on race times, not the official verdict) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £22.95 to a £1 level stake at SP. David Simcock’s two-year-old is a full brother to heavy-ground winner City Of York and his stall 5 of 7 draw is handy given that the runners are likely to migrate to the near side rail in the straight.

WINCANTON 3.28

SHANTOU EXPRESS (system – Kim Bailey, early-season break returners)

As mentioned in yesterday’s column, Kim Bailey has a cracking recent record with his early-season breaker returners. Since the beginning of 2021, his runners in October, November or December who were back from a break of 150 days or longer landed 30 of their 116 starts (25.9%) for a profit of £53.83 (yesterday’s results – he had three qualifiers – not included). SHANTOU EXPRESS has had a wind operation since pulling up at Market Rasen in May and the fast ground will suit.

CHELMSFORD 5.45

HIGH COURT JUDGE (system – James Owen, stable switchers, AW)

It’s early days in the career of James Owen but he’s made a great start to his career and has quickly earned a reputation for improving horses he picks up from other trainers. Those making their debut for him on the all-weather are five from 19 for a profit of £9.35 to a £1 level stake at SP and perhaps HIGH COURT JUDGE, ex-David Dennis, can boost those figures in this weak 1m handicap.

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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:

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