There was a clean path. As they tend to do in recent years, the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders made it a big mess.

Two weeks ago, both franchises were well positioned, sitting at the intersection of quarterback need and draft availability, with a pair of forthcoming prospects offering at least an attempt at answering a longstanding problem: finding a centerpiece QB who was worthy of being written into long-term plans. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward were the remedies for what ailed the Raiders and Giants, even if the league’s annual draft sorting process had yet to hit a higher gear. Maybe both would make it through to April’s draft unscathed, or maybe they wouldn’t. But the bottom line in mid-December was that the season-long pain of losing was finally taking shape, giving the Giants and Raiders options. Each franchise was in the game.

Two weeks later, the options are now vastly more complicated.

Once almost certain of nailing down two of the top three picks in the 2025 NFL Draft — which would have put each franchise squarely in reach of the two best quarterbacks available — the Giants and Raiders now sit at fourth and eighth, respectively, in the draft order after a spate of wins.

In front of New York? The New England Patriots at No. 1 overall, needing multiple players but not a quarterback, and willing to shop their draft choice to anyone who calls. At No. 2? The Tennessee Titans, who are either punting on Will Levis as their starter, or at the very least, getting into formation to do so. And at No. 3 sit the Cleveland Browns, who are stuck in a Deshaun Watson nightmare and also likely to shop their pick to the highest bidder.

The situation is even worse for the Raiders, who have fallen all the way down to eighth, giving them the same problems as the Raiders in terms of draft position, but with the New York Jets also positioned ahead of them at seventh overall. That means Las Vegas is not only grappling with three franchises in front of it that have clear quarterback needs (Titans, Giants and Jets), but also contending with a multitude of trade scenarios that could leave them without a single QB capable of having an impact for the team in 2025.

This is a good representation of how frustrating the Raiders and Giants have been in 2024. In a season when very little went right, they somehow turned winning games into a net negative, too. By finding victories when it mattered least, they pushed a reachable quarterback horizon even further away.

So what’s the plan now? Here’s what I’ve heard about each situation.

The Giants

Some members of the personnel department have an affinity for Miami’s Cam Ward, who has some playmaking elements to his game coated with a Josh Allen-esque residue. He will play some hero ball, for the best and worst of it.

Given that head coach Brian Daboll worked wonders developing Allen with the Bills, there’s some sensibility to Ward finding his ceiling as an NFL player with a patient coach who has done it before. Ward’s overall frame (6-foot-2, 223 pounds) and arm talent, while good, are not on Allen’s level. But Ward’s college career also hasn’t included the best or most consistent coaching and development from start to finish, so there’s reason to believe his game can get much cleaner from a risk-taking standpoint. The Giants also selected wideout Malik Nabers after he sat out the second half of his bowl game a year ago, so I can’t see Ward’s checking out of his bowl game after one half being an issue.

The larger issue is who will actually be the head coach and general manager of this team next season. That is very much in flux, and it’s going to be something that gets resolved on an individual basis between team co-owner John Mara, Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen.

Right now, every option is on the table, with Mara taking time after the season to sit down with both his head coach and general manager separately and effectively give them an opportunity to lay out a blueprint. If Mara doesn’t think the pair is on the same page, either Daboll or Schoen could be fired.

One dark horse candidate to keep in mind for the Giants’ job: Mike Vrabel, who has preexisting relationships with Giants personnel adviser Ryan Cowden — who held multiple personnel positions for the Titans while Vrabel was head coach — and also Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, who was a linebackers coach and then defensive coordinator under Vrabel.

Should Daboll be fired, I believe Vrabel would be the top candidate to replace him.

The Raiders

Adjacent to the Giants and their quarterback evaluation of Ward, I still believe Sanders would be the top candidate for the Raiders if minority owner Tom Brady is allowed to weigh in on the level that majority owner Mark Davis has suggested.

From what I’ve been told about Brady’s opinion of Sanders — which he has shared with a handful of NFL coaches and executives over the past 18 months — there is a great amount of respect for Sanders’ focus on preparation, his ability to learn and adapt, his accuracy and determination in the pocket, and his toughness to take hits and still be resilient. I’ve been told that Brady has also been impressed that Sanders has avoided the pitfalls of being thrust onto the center stage of college football’s limelight after transferring to Colorado to play for his father, Deion. For the most part, Shedeur has never become a distraction, developed selfish tendencies or created issues with his public profile or fame that overshadowed his team or his game. He also stayed in school for four years and developed, which is something Brady has repeatedly and publicly said he values in a young quarterback.

Much like the Giants, there are two caveats here. First, the Raiders are currently believed to be out of draft position to select Sanders, who is expected to be a top-five pick, if not top two or three. Second, the Raiders’ coaching staff is still up in the air, with Vrabel also prominently expected to factor into Las Vegas interviews if head coach Antonio Pierce is fired after the season. That’s quite a bit of uncertainty that first requires Davis to make a decision on his coaching staff, and then demands some planning when it comes to potentially trading up for Sanders.

One aside I must offer here: There is a counter narrative here with Sanders among some other NFL teams, who believe there’s a chance he slips out of the top five picks, either based on need or pre-draft evaluations. Given the teams that have quarterback needs right now, that seems unlikely. But we’re a long way from April and things can certainly change. Lest we forget, the week of the 2023 NFL Draft, there was still a belief that Will Levis could be selected in the top five. He went in the second round. And that was a much better draft when it came to the ceilings of the available quarterbacks.

That, in a nutshell, is a pair of the biggest quarterback questions this offseason. And each one is likely going to linger all the way until April, thanks to both the Giants and Raiders playing themselves out of the potential pole position in the draft. Now begins a monthslong game of liar’s poker, where we’ll likely hear skewed assessments of evaluations concerning Sanders and Ward — along with what teams beyond the Giants and Raiders have either fallen in love with their talent, or don’t believe either is worth a first-round grade.

Now on to the other 10 pressing quarterback messes that have to be sorted this offseason …

If Sam Darnold stays in Minnesota, what happens to J.J. McCarthy?

First and foremost, for housecleaning purposes, I’ll just say that I believe Darnold will be back with the Vikings in 2025. Whether that’s the (likely) franchise tag or a longer-term deal remains to be seen. But that development naturally opens up an equation about what Minnesota will do with McCarthy this offseason.

In a word? Nothing. I believe they’ll keep him, because the organization — including the front office and coaching staff — has never lost the tremendous amount of faith they have in McCarthy developing into a franchise quarterback. But there are layers here, too. Because of McCarthy’s meniscus tear and his two subsequent surgeries, the Vikings haven’t been able to see what his developmental arc looks like. The underlying problem there? Neither have any other prospective trade partners.

The bottom line is even with an extremely weak offseason for quarterback acquisition, McCarthy’s still an injured player who just lost a season of on-field development. That doesn’t exactly light the fuse on a ludicrous trade offer, which is the only type that would get Minnesota to even pick up the phone. Here’s what I believe plays out: Darnold gets the franchise tag and plays in 2025 for nearly $40 million, while McCarthy gets another offseason of development and learning inside head coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme. If everything goes according to plan, the Vikings will get a full slate of work with McCarthy in the offseason passing program, then he’ll get plenty of work in the 2025 preseason games. At that point, he becomes insurance against a Darnold injury or implosion in 2025, and the entire situation is reassessed after the season roughly one year from now.

One little aside here that got dropped to me in a conversation with an executive who has worked with Josh McCown on the NFL level: Keep an eye on the Vikings quarterbacks coach, who will start popping up more prominently on head coaching search lists this offseason. I believe there is an eye toward McCown being a serious candidate for hire one year from now in the NFL cycle. Should McCown stick around with Minnesota through 2025 — which is anticipated, barring a team offering him an offensive coordinator job — his experience working with McCarthy could provide a future trade destination. If McCown lands a head coaching job after the 2025 season and needs a quarterback, there will be a solid line drawn to McCarthy. Especially if Darnold gets a new multiyear deal with the Vikings this offseason or next.

Will Brock Purdy get an extension from the San Francisco 49ers this offseason?

Luckily, Purdy avoided a serious injury with his latest elbow contusion and nerve inflammation against the Detroit Lions. Anything requiring a surgery or offseason downtime would have been a disaster in contract negotiations. That said, I think the 49ers waiting on a Purdy extension remains on the table. I don’t think that’s what the franchise ultimately wants, through. I still believe an extension is the priority in San Francisco — even with the inconsistent performance and as many turnovers in 15 games this season (15) as his first 24 regular-season games in 2022 and 2023 combined.

Ultimately, I think the question is going to come down to money. Taken in a small window, Purdy’s résumé is arguably better than that of Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love, and both of those quarterbacks became the NFL’s highest-paid player (briefly) when they signed their new deals last offseason. He’s also had better postseason success than the Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, who is the current highest-paid player in the league. If the goal is to make Purdy the highest-paid player in the league with more than $140 million in guaranteed money in his next deal, I think percentages shift toward the 49ers going into the final year of his rookie deal with an intention of franchise tagging him after the 2025 season and working out an extension under the tag. If his deal is more in line with Love’s — four years for $220 million with $100 million guaranteed — I think it can realistically get done by training camp.

Will Russell Wilson or Justin Fields be back with the Pittsburgh Steelers?

I believe Russell Wilson will eventually be back with the Pittsburgh Steelers — although I think it will be on a short-term “economical” extension. I think it will come with modest guarantees (full Year 1 guaranteed salary, partial Year 2 guaranteed salary) that is more in line with him earning something in the range of the $25 million of the Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith and the $33.3 million of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield. Maybe Wilson gets two full years of guaranteed money in Pittsburgh if there is any other market out there for him free agency. Beyond that, I think the money is simply too rich for his age and production that has leveled off.

The upside of Wilson coming back, from inside the franchise, is having him in the full offseason program with George Pickens and Roman Wilson — whose entire rookie season was destroyed by injuries. The Steelers also have eight picks in the 2025 NFL Draft, including their own from Rounds 1-4. There’s not a suitable young quarterback to come in to replace Wilson, and not a suitable bridge quarterback to replace him, either. Does the offense have limitations in its current form? Yes. Is Wilson the main culprit of that? No. It’s still better than anything Pittsburgh has put onto the field the last few seasons.

Fields is a bit more interesting. If Wilson is back in Pittsburgh, there’s a very low percentage chance — likely zero — that Fields considers coming back to the Steelers. But it also depends what his other options are across the NFL. There won’t be a starting job waiting for him anywhere. Instead, he will enter free agency looking for a chance to compete for a starting job, similar to Baker Mayfield with the Buccaneers in 2023 or Sam Darnold with the Minnesota Vikings this season. We won’t know that spot until we’re closer to free agency and all of the staffs have been solidified across the league. Scheme will be important in Fields’ decision.

What happens with Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets?

Rodgers is low-key campaigning for a return to the Jets for a reason. First, there might not be a great market available to him elsewhere that isn’t an absolutely awful team or a situation where he’s coming in for one year of bridge duty to play in front of a rookie draft pick. Under the status quo with the Jets, it makes staying put his best option — likely for a very reduced salary.

That said, I don’t think there is a strong appetite inside the franchise to take another swing with Rodgers in 2025. There’s definitely an opinion with a few Jets staffers that Rodgers has lost a significant part of his playmaking ability — much of which is believed to have to do with his limited athleticism at this stage of his career. He simply does not move consistently like he once did. And his base and mechanics are not supporting his still-considerable arm strength, leading to an alarming number of poor throws in the second half of the season. Really, if we’re going to distill it down, it’s this: Some guys inside the Jets see Rodgers as a once-great player who has descended into mortality and is never going to regain anything close to what he was in his final days with the Green Bay Packers. The descent started in the 2022 season and was blamed on a core of young wideouts. Instead, it was the beginning of the slide.

All of this said, the next phase is going to be in the next regime’s hands — with both the next head coach and next general manager expected to lay out their plan in advance of being hired. Because of that, it won’t be a surprise if the franchise’s lean (for or away from him) gets leaked at some point in the hiring process. We also can’t discount that Rodgers has his future in his own hands, too. He’s said he’s committed to taking some time away and then making a decision. That could be to walk away, rather than attempting to grind it out with another team just to leave on a positive note and without a bad taste at the end of his legacy.

If I handicapped it, I believe either the Jets bring Rodgers back for one year with possibly a team option year in 2026, or they release him shortly after the season and move on. I can’t say I have any insight on what Rodgers might choose to do independently of anyone else, because I don’t even think Rodgers knows that. But given how his career has played out to this point, I would not be surprised if he ends up getting released and then retiring … then unretiring in July when some NFL franchise chases after him. And no, that’s not a Brett Favre joke.

Where does Kirk Cousins land?

I don’t think there’s any quarterback in this next offseason that has a future more predicated on dominoes falling that Cousins does. From what I’ve been told, he absolutely intends to pursue continuing his career next season. But the plan at the moment is to rally with his agent once he has been released by the Atlanta Falcons and NFL staffs have been sorted out. When there starts to be some clarity with other quarterback situations across the league, Cousins will start to get a handle on his options.

Realistically, I think he’ll know those options after the first few days of the NFL combine in late February. That’s when teams will know how they want to proceed with their quarterback situations, including possible draft options. All of that will make its way to Cousins’ agent and his priorities will get sorted pretty quickly. The key question to ask here: Who is well out of position for a shot at a draftable young quarterback and also finds themselves grasping for a veteran bridge option? If those teams don’t have Cousins on their radar, the next option up becomes a team that is looking to bring in a veteran to press and compete with their starter.