Purdue basketball 2024-25 season prediction, schedule analysis: A rugged road to 3-peat

Posted by Admin October 29, 2024 Basketball

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With one longstanding goal checked off, Purdue basketball can take aim at another historic opportunity.

Only twice previously in Big Ten history has a team won three consecuitve outright regular-season championships. Ohio State did it from 1960-62 with some guys you may have heard of: Jerry Lucas, John Havlicek and Bob Knight. I know you’ve heard of the last group to do it: Glenn Robinson, Brad Miller, Cuonzo Martin and others from the 1994-96 Boilermakers era.

The road toward that destination includes a nonconference schedule littered with nationally ranked opponents and a coast-to-coast Big Ten slate punctuated by a rugged five-game finish. If Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer and the other veteran Boilermakers join that exclusive three-peat club, they’ll certainly have earned their membership.

Meet Purdue basketball roster: Breaking down the Boilers ahead of 2024-25 season

Here’s a breakdown by month, including a prediction of what we’ll look back on in March as the season’s inflection points:

October/November

Oct. 30: Grand Valley State (exhibition)

Nov. 4: Texas A&M Corpus Christi

Nov. 8: Northern Kentucky

Nov. 11: Yale

Nov. 15: Alabama

Nov. 19: at Marquette

A fantastic back-to-back nonconference test before people are finished with their leftover Halloween candy.

Alabama will challenge the defensive readiness of the less experience portions of this lineup. Nate Oats added an SEC All-Freshman guard (Aden Holloway), the AAC Co-Player of the Year (Chris Youngblood) and a former Big Ten big man (Cliff Omoruyi) to what returned from a Final Four run. This may end up being the most-talented opponent to visit Mackey Arena this season.

Marquette coach Shaka Smart has successfully flummoxed Purdue in the past, and in particular could help pressure-test the young backcourt depth’s ability to handle pressure.

Nov. 23: Marshall

Nov. 28: vs. NC State at Rady Children’s Invitational

Nov. 29: vs. BYU or Ole Miss at Rady Children’s Invitational

Every piece of this Thanksgiving event carries connections. This opening tipoff will come 236 days after Purdue and NC State played in the national semifinals. Awaiting the next day will be either Ole Miss, coached by certified Boiler menace Chris Beard, or BYU featuring Kanon Catchings, who began this summer as a member of Purdue’s incoming freshman class.

This is not the gauntlet Purdue ran last season in Maui. It could, though, give us an indication of how much of an asset this versatile roster can be on such a short turnaround — both in terms of the matchups it adjusts to and the ones it forces.

December

Dec. 5: at Penn State

Dec. 8: Maryland

Dec. 14: vs. Texas A&M in Indy Classic

Dec. 21: vs. Auburn in Birmingham, Ala.

Another intriguing pairing. Both the Aggies and Tigers could be top-10 teams when this game is played.

The last time Purdue went up against a Buzz Williams-coached team on a neutral court, Virginia Tech used its backcourt athleticism and stolen points to win the Chatleston Classic championship in November 2018. Those Boilermakers learned from the experience and finished an eyelash away from the Final Four.

Gicarri Harris and C.J. Cox have spent the summer and preseason establishing an immmediate boost to the defensive depth at guard. Always a crucial component in these high-level matchups, yet both A&M (Minnesota transfer Pharrel Payne) and Auburn (All-American Johni Broome) will also challenge Purdue’s pliable identity in the post.

Dec. 29: Toledo

January

Jan. 2: at Minnesota

Jan. 5: Northwestern

Jan. 9: at Rutgers

Jan. 12: Nebraska

Based on what we know about these teams in October, this seems like an obvious opportunity to build momentum when league play resumes in earnest. The exception being that Jan. 9 trip to the RAC, where Purdue had lost three straight before last season. None of those Rutgers teams had a pair of five-star prospects, either.

Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper’s tenure with the Scarlet Knights will in part be defined about how they perform against the established elite of the conference. This game could be a targeted one for that entire program. It can also be a moment which helps this Purdue team establish its own identity against the Big Ten’s next wave.

Jan. 15: at Washington

Jan. 18: at Oregon

Jan. 21: Ohio State

Jan. 24: Michigan

Jan. 31: Indiana

This section of the schedule may set up well. On that Pacific Northwest two-fer, that’s probably the preferred order of opponents. I do think that first home game back against Ohio State could threaten the Big Ten home winning streak — assuming it’s still intact at that point. But getting a full week to prepare for the first Indiana meeting right at the midpoint of the conference schedule could be an important break.

Februrary/March

Feb. 4: at Iowa

Feb. 7: USC

Feb. 11: at Michigan

Feb. 15: Wisconsin

Feb. 18: at Michigan State

Feb. 23: at Indiana

Feb. 28: UCLA

March 4: Rutgers

March 7: at Illinois

March 12-14: Big Ten tournament (Indianapolis)

Whatever season-long tinkering, adjusting and optimizing Matt Painter goes through to find best usage of his roster comes down to this challenging home stretch. It would not shock anyone if the Boilermakers and these five teams hold the top six spots in the conference in mid-February.

Breslin Center and Assembly Hall annually present among the most-hostile visiting conditions. Purdue is 2-3 in its past five in East Lansing with two one-point victories. Playing the Hoosiers on the road speaks for itself — especially if this latter meeting holds championship implications.

Lots of nostalgia in the air for that visit from UCLA, but Mick Cronin is already talking about the importance of John Wooden to his own program. WIll Rutgers’ star freshmen be hitting a wall in late February, or reaching their peak?

That finale in Champaign jumped off the screen when the Big Ten released its schedule. Even if Illinois can’t put everything together after losing so much from its Elite Eight run, that is not an easy place to win nor an easy coach to beat.

Going 3-2 in this closing stretch would seem like a reasonable accomplishment. Will it be enough to seal up a third straight league championship, if the Boilermakers control their own destiny?

Final Purdue basketball 2024-25 record prediction

Record: 24-9, 15-5

Those 15 victories were good enough to win the conference outright two years ago, tie for the championship the year before that, and would have won outright as well in 2019-20. (Michigan went 14-3 in the shortened 2020-21 schedule.) So this prediction puts the Boilermakers in the mix to at least share the championship.

Sitting here in October, that final stretch looks like such a bear that Purdue’s actual championship aspirations may be decided much earlier. Does it avoid any letdowns against the bottom half of the conference? Does it stay healthy for key matchups? Those final five will be hard enough to win without having to account for one that slipped away earlier.

Purdue may also be favored in every home game, and if it runs the Mackey table for the second straight year, that’s a huge boost to its trophy potential.

Achievements: Share of Big Ten championship, NCAA tournament Sweet 16

Purdue’s history in the Big Ten tournament — especially when played in Indianapolis — is well-documented. I’m guessing 1-1.

Boilermakers fans also know all too well the randomness of the NCAA tournament experience often comes down to matchups. It also helps when veteran-led teams thrive on versatility. I think both of those could be in Purdue’s favor to at least stick around through the first weekend.

Thoughts: This program has the NCAA tournament monkey off its back. That does not mean this group is playing with house money, though. These players are motivated to prove they have their own identity and their own collective upside.

This is also a program validated by, but not satisfied with, reaching the national championship game. It wants the whole thing, and at some point, that tournament randomness can also work in its favor. Purdue maximized itself with a two-time national player of the year whose mere physical presence created unsolvable matchup problems for many opponents. Next up: Make a run with a mix more like this one — talented but balanced, with experience augmented by freshmen playing beyond their years.

It’s been a long time since a Boilermakers team could open the season with a high floor, legitimate championship upside and no pressure to end a generational tournament drought. It could make the process ahead a fascinating one to watch.