Projecting the fourth College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team bracket

Posted by Admin November 26, 2024 Football

The College Football Playoff rankings are entering crunch time, with only a couple weeks left for teams to maneuver for that all-important spot in the top 12.

On3 will attempt to project this week’s rankings and 12-team playoff bracket below.

There were some games that caused serious movement, with three previous top-10 teams losing over the weekend. That will throw a wrench into the exact zone where teams are jockeying for the final spots.

Meanwhile, there was some further sorting of the Group of Five picture, thanks to Army‘s loss to Notre Dame over the weekend. Boise State now stands in commanding position to earn a bid, though Tulane remains lurking close behind.

Here’s our crack at what the third Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings will look like, plus the 12-team bracket.

Remember: These are two very different things. Just because a team is ranked No. 3 does not mean it is guaranteed the No. 3 seed. We’re projecting the rankings and bracket based on how we believe the committee will arrange both on Tuesday.

Note that the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest-ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth.

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how we project the third College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFB bracket:

1. (11-0) Oregon Ducks
2. (10-1) Ohio State Buckeyes
3. (10-1) Texas Longhorns
4. (10-1) Penn State Nittany Lions
5. (10-1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1
6. (10-1) Miami Hurricanes +2
7. (9-2) Georgia Bulldogs +3
8. (10-1) Indiana Hoosiers -3
9. (9-2) Tennessee Volunteers +2
10. (10-1) Boise State Broncos +2
11. (10-1) SMU Mustangs +2
12. (8-3) Alabama Crimson Tide -5
13. (9-2) Clemson Tigers +4
14. (8-3) Ole Miss Rebels -5
15. (8-3) South Carolina Gamecocks +3
16. (9-2) Arizona State Sun Devils +5
17. (9-2) BYU Cougars -3
18. (9-2) Iowa State Cyclones +4
19. (9-2) Tulane Green Wave +1
20. (8-3) Texas A&M Aggies -5
21. (8-3) Colorado Buffaloes -5
22. (8-3) Missouri Tigers +1
23. (9-2) UNLV Rebels +1
24. (8-3) Illinois Fighting Illini +1
25. (9-1) Army Black Knights -6

Note: Movement listed based on last week’s ranking.

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion): While other teams battled this weekend, Oregon had a chance to rest and recover. At this point, the Ducks are almost assured of a playoff berth, though obviously they’d love to lock up the first-round bye by winning the league. First, though, a home date with Washington to close out the regular-season slate.

2. Texas (SEC Champion): The Longhorns remain in the driver’s seat in the SEC race, though they have not yet locked up a spot in the SEC title game. Texas has to knock off Texas A&M in the finale to earn the right to face Georgia. But, as currently ranked, Texas takes the top spot from the SEC and the first-round bye with it.

3. Miami (ACC Champion): Miami is in a similar position as Texas, the projected power player in the conference but not yet into the conference title game. The ‘Canes must beat Syracuse to earn a berth in the ACC Championship Game against SMU. For now, though, Miami remains ranked ahead and thus is projected as the ACC champion.

4. Boise State (Mountain West Champion): At this point, following BYU’s second loss of the season, Boise State is in excellent position to earn a first-round bye as one of the top four conference champions. But the Broncos have some tough games remaining, first against Oregon State and then the Mountain West Championship Game. Nothing is a given just yet.

The At-Larges

5. Ohio State: The Buckeyes still have to beat Michigan to clinch a spot alongside Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. But do that and a playoff spot is all but assured. It would be tough to see the committee leaving a two-loss Ohio State team, where the second loss was in a conference title game, out of the playoffs. Of course, the Buckeyes will be gunning for that first-round bye.

6. Penn State: Not dead yet in the Big Ten title race, Penn State needs Ohio State to lose to have a chance of getting in. Then the Nittany Lions must beat the Maryland Terrapins to secure the appearance. Beating Maryland and not getting into the Big Ten title game is a scenario that’ll be just fine with many Penn State fans, though. It would virtually assure a home playoff game.

7. Notre Dame: A potentially tricky regular-season finale against USC looms, on the road at that. The way things have gone this year, you can’t chalk that up as a win just yet. Notre Dame doesn’t have an overly strong resume, so avoiding a loss is key. The Fighting Irish don’t want to bother seeing where they stack up with two losses.

8. Georgia: The Bulldogs should be in pretty comfortable position after this week, but they do have to play an SEC Championship Game after the finale against Georgia Tech. That could make for an interesting first test of how the committee treats conference championship games. But the best-case scenario is simple for the ‘Dawgs: Win two and you’re in with a first-round bye.

9. Indiana: It’s going to be very, very interesting to see where the committee has Indiana ranked this week. The Hoosiers could easily be a few spots lower than we have them, which would put them in jeopardy for sure. However, if Indiana checks in where we have it projected a win against Purdue should lock up a playoff spot. There’s an outside scenario where Ohio State and Penn State both lose this week and Indiana wins, sending Indiana to the Big Ten title game, but that’s probably not worth entertaining.

10. Tennessee: Like Indiana, Tennessee’s spot this week is going to be fascinating. Because the Volunteers don’t really have much left on the schedule to juice the resume. Vanderbilt is the last game. As far as two-loss teams go, though, Tennessee has a pretty strong resume. We’re projecting the Volunteers in the field at this point.

11. SMU: The situation for SMU is crystal clear. Win out or you’re out. SMU has already locked up its spot in the ACC Championship Game. It also has a regular season contest against California left. Win both and SMU is not only in the playoffs, it could earn a first-round bye as the ACC champion.

12. Arizona State: The Sun Devils have quietly vaulted themselves into playoff contention with back-to-back wins over ranked teams. Moreover, they still have a shot at the conference title. Depending on how this week’s College Football Playoff rankings go, Arizona State could potentially get in without having to win the conference championship game. But the margins are likely to be razor thin that way.

First Four Out: Alabama, Clemson, Ole Miss, South Carolina

Group of 5 Contenders: Tulane, UNLV, Army