In 2022, Marcus Freeman’s first season as Notre Dame‘s head coach, it was the Week 2 loss to Marshall that stunned the Fighting Irish.

Last year, it was an unexpected loss at Louisville that knocked Notre Dame out of the College Football Playoff in early October.

Now, it’s a real shocker — losing to Northern Illinois, a 28.5-point underdog.

“We’ve been here before,” Freeman said after Saturday’s defeat. “Now, it’s time to get it fixed. We’ve got to get it fixed and get back to playing football the way we know how to play, we’ve played before, and we can, and we will.”

Even if the Irish do fix things, it might not be enough to make the CFP selection committee ignore this giant ink stain on their résumé. The independent Irish can’t earn an automatic bid because those are reserved for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Their only path to the 12-team playoff is through one of seven at-large bids.

If Notre Dame runs the table and is competing with other one-loss teams for a spot, the combination of a bad loss and fewer wins against ranked opponents could exclude the Irish from the playoff. It didn’t help Notre Dame that Georgia Tech lost to Syracuse, as the Irish will play the Yellow Jackets on Oct. 19, and it would help if Georgia Tech was a ranked opponent. The regular-season finale against rival USC likely will be Notre Dame’s best remaining opportunity to impress the committee.

It’s still far too early, though, to declare Notre Dame doomed — especially in the new 12-team format, which no one, including the committee, has experienced before. For now, Notre Dame is out of the projection for the committee’s top 12.

Keep in mind, the following is a prediction of how the committee would rank the teams after Week 2, not how it would seed them. The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from the ranking. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.

Here’s our second prediction of the season for how the committee would rank — not seed — the top 12 teams.

Why they could be here: For the second straight week, Georgia completely dominated an opponent on both sides of the ball, this time against an overmatched FCS team in Tennessee Tech. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck through five touchdowns then took a seat. This win isn’t going to do anything for the Bulldogs’ playoff résumé, but in a week when some other contenders struggled to assert themselves against unranked competition, the committee would reward Georgia’s consistency.

Why they could be lower: Because Texas has a case — and a strong one — for the top spot. If only these two teams would play each other … oh, right. This will be settled on the field in Austin on Oct. 19. While Georgia was able to beat Clemson last week in a marquee nonconference game, the Bulldogs did it in Atlanta, in their home state. Texas went into “The Big House” and beat defending national champion Michigan up, down and sideways.

Need to know: It’s possible Georgia and Texas will face each other three times this season — once during the regular season, again in the SEC championship game and a third time in the playoff. It would be a unique scenario, but the committee doesn’t consider rematches when voting for its final Top 25 on Selection Day.

Why they could be here: The selection committee holds road wins against ranked Power 4 opponents in high regard, and Texas was unfazed by the Michigan crowd or the Wolverines. Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian has built a title contender, and the combination of depth and talent completely overwhelmed Michigan on its home turf. With this performance, Texas checked the boxes for both eye test and résumé.

Why they could be higher: Talent. Period. There are former coaches and players on the committee who can tell the difference between elite teams and, well, everyone else. So far, Texas looks like an elite team. Quarterback Quinn Ewers appears every bit as good as Georgia’s Carson Beck. There also are emerging stars such as tight end Gunnar Helm and running back Jaydon Blue.

Need to know: How much weight this win carries in the committee meeting room ultimately depends on how Michigan fares this season. As long as the Wolverines have a respectable season and finish above .500 — which they should — this is the kind of win that will help earn the Longhorns an at-large bid if they don’t win the SEC.

Why they could be here: The talent oozing off this team would outweigh the lack of schedule strength in the committee meeting room. Ohio State has outscored its first two opponents 108-6. The reality, though, is that Western Michigan and Akron were severely overmatched. Western Michigan, though, gave Wisconsin fits last week.

Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has looked equally as prolific offensively, but one of its wins came against an FCS opponent. The irony is that one of Ohio State’s superstars is Ole Miss transfer running back Quinshon Judkins. Aside from Ohio State not having a win against a ranked opponent, it’s hard to nitpick the Buckeyes here. It’s possible they could be higher but unlikely, because Georgia and Texas both looked just as good against better competition.

Need to know: The Buckeyes have a bye before hosting Marshall. Ohio State’s weak nonconference schedule probably will only be a topic of conversation in the committee meeting room if the Buckeyes don’t win the Big Ten and are fighting for an at-large spot. Even then, it would probably impact seeding more than it would Ohio State’s place in the playoff.

Why they could be here: As impressive as Ole Miss has looked, the committee likely would hold them back from a higher spot because they’ve padded the stats against FCS Furman and unranked Middle Tennessee out of Conference USA. Ohio State’s schedule isn’t much better — wins against Akron and Western Michigan — but there’s no FCS opponent for the Buckeyes.

Why they could be higher: This team scores at will. Heading into the season, coach Lane Kiffin had said repeatedly this was his best roster but that time would tell if it’s his best team. So far, it’s trending in that direction. The Rebels racked up 655 total yards in Week 2.

Need to know: The selection committee insists it doesn’t look ahead, and you will hear committee chair Warde Manuel repeat that mantra, but the Rebels can start to separate itself from Ohio State next week if they beat Wake Forest on the road. While the Demon Deacons likely won’t be aren’t ranked, it would still be a victory against a respectable ACC opponent while the Buckeyes play Marshall for their third straight home game against a Group of 5 opponent.

Why they could be here: Miami pummeled Florida A&M, showing no signs of a letdown after an emotional Week 1 win at rival Florida. The Hurricanes racked up 549 yards and allowed only 190. They didn’t allow a touchdown and never punted. Two wins against unranked opponents won’t do much for Miami’s résumé, but the committee will clearly see the talent in both victories. While Alabama was struggling with South Florida, the Canes took another step toward owning the state of Florida.

Why they could be lower: It’s a subjective system, and the committee could be more impressed with USC’s season-opening win against LSU or Oregon‘s triumph versus a Boise State team that can contend for a spot in the CFP as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion.

Need to know: Miami entered this week ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies, a common trait among the selection committee’s past playoff teams.

Why they could be here: The season-opening decision over LSU is still one of the better nonconference wins to date, and it will remain that way unless LSU comes unraveled. The Tigers got off to an uncomfortably slow start against Nicholls on Saturday but won 44-21. USC also avoided any scare from Utah State at home. As to whether USC or PSU should be ranked higher, they’ll eventually answer that on the field on Oct. 12 in Los Angeles.

Why they could be higher: USC and Miami both beat SEC opponents, but the Canes win against the Gators could wind up being of lesser value if Florida has a losing season. For now, Miami has the edge in part because it won in “The Swamp” against an in-state rival and has looked the part of an ACC champion.

Need to know: USC and Texas have a common opponent in Michigan, as the Trojans travel to Ann Arbor on Sept. 21. If USC and Texas don’t win their respective conferences and are fighting for an at-large bid with the same record, that’s one factor the committee will raise in its conversations. It doesn’t incentivize margin of victory, but how the games unfold will matter.

Why they could be here: The Ducks came back from a 20-14 halftime deficit to beat a talented Boise State team that should contend for the playoff as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. This wasn’t a pushover team, and the committee values wins against teams in its Top 25. Boise State has a chance to finish the season there in spite of the road loss to the Ducks. Still, Oregon simply hasn’t looked as strong consistently as the teams ranked ahead of it.

Why they could be lower: Oregon has appeared average over two weeks, and the selection committee won’t forget the pedestrian performance in the season opener against Idaho of the FCS. Saturday’s outing was a tricky home win against a team the Ducks were expected to beat, while Penn State went on the road and beat West Virginia in Week 1.

Need to know: The head-to-head win against Boise State was critical for possible playoff seeding because the four highest-ranked conference champions earn a first-round bye. If both Oregon and Boise State win their respective conferences, this victory should give the Ducks the higher rank and, in turn, the first-round bye.

Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions found a way to win against Bowling Green, even though it wasn’t pretty. The head coaches and former players on the committee understand the difficulty of avoiding a letdown after winning a tough road game, but the group also rewards teams that are consistently dominant, like the ones at the top of this list. One week after looking the part of a playoff contender, Penn State let doubt creep back in. Quarterback Drew Allar completed just 13 of 20 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns with an interception.

Why they could be higher: The season-opening road win against West Virginia remains one of the better early wins of the contenders. Beyond that, it’s hard to make a case for the Lions after their defense allowed 24 points in the first half to an unranked Bowling Green team.

Need to know: Penn State will play its second of four straight home games — all against unranked opponents — on Saturday against Kent State. ESPN Analytics projects PSU will win each of them, giving the Lions a strong chance to enter the Oct. 12 game at USC undefeated.

Why they could be here: There’s still no statement win, and at times on Saturday, the Crimson Tide didn’t look like a playoff team. For the second straight season, Alabama struggled to beat South Florida — this time in Tuscaloosa and without Nick Saban. The Tide had 13 penalties for 120 yards and three interceptions — all against a mostly one-dimensional team. At the same time, the Tide’s freshman phenom, 17-year-old wide receiver Ryan Williams, came through in the clutch, and Alabama’s defense limited South Florida to just one first down in 17 third-down tries.

Why they could be lower: Inconsistency against unranked Group of 5 opponents. One week after looking sharp in a 63-0 drubbing of Western Kentucky, Alabama was in real jeopardy of losing at home to South Florida in the fourth quarter. Alabama was a bigger and better team, and for stretches of this game, it didn’t matter.

Need to know: The committee will learn more about Alabama on Saturday when it travels to Wisconsin for its first road game and first nonconference matchup against a Power 4 opponent.

Why they could be here: The selection committee will respect the Volunteers’ neutral-site win against a borderline Top 25-caliber ACC team in NC State. Even if the Wolfpack aren’t a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day, the committee still uses wins against Power 4 teams above .500 as a factor when comparing similar teams.

Why they could be higher: It’s clear Tennessee has a star in freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, and the committee has historically lauded strong quarterback play on prolific offenses. And Iamaleava’s solid efforts came on a day when Penn State’s offense sputtered its way into the end zone and Bama tangled with South Florida.

Need to know: With a home game against Kent State up next, the Vols should be undefeated heading into a difficult Sept. 21 trip to Oklahoma, which is now a conference game. ESPN Analytics gives the Sooners a slight edge, with a 50.5% chance to win. With games against Alabama and Georgia also looming for Tennessee, Saturday’s win against NC State was critical for some wiggle room down the stretch.

Why they could be here: The selection committee appreciates complete teams, and Mizzou’s defense has been just as much of a factor in its dominant start as its summer-hyped offense. The Tigers entered Saturday’s game against Buffalo ranked No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency and added onto it with a shutout of the Bulls. It’s the first time Missouri has delivered back-to-back shutouts since 1966. Still, the season-opening win was against FCS Murray State, and that is something the committee notes in its debates.

Why they could be higher: There’s no shortage of talent, but Mizzou could make a stronger case to move up with a similar performance against tougher competition. They’ll step up on Saturday against Boston College.

Need to know: ESPN Analytics projects Missouri will win each of its regular-season games — except for the Oct. 26 trip to Alabama. If Mizzou continues to play this way, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers being excluded from the playoff — unless they are in a position where they get bumped in favor of the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion.

Why they could be here: The Cowboys showed they have other players who can step up when defenses find a way to slow down star running back Ollie Gordon II, beating Arkansas in double overtime with a team effort. Historically, any win against an SEC team is a good win in the eyes of the selection committee, but Oklahoma State needs Arkansas to rebound and have a respectable season for it to stay that way.

Why they could be higher: At the moment, beating Arkansas trumps anything on Missouri’s résumé, but the nonconference win against the Power 4 opponent is really the Cowboys’ best argument. They converted only 5 of 16 third-down opportunities, ran for 59 yards and allowed the Hogs a whopping 648 total yards.

Need to know: The selection committee does consider injuries to key players, and Oklahoma State linebacker Collin Oliver will be out indefinitely after suffering an injury to his right leg. Kansas State also received some consideration for this spot for its gritty road win at Tulane, which is a team capable of contending for a playoff spot as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. Utah also was considered, but it played the least-difficult team of the three Big 12 contenders here.

Based on the rankings above, the top four seeds would be: No. 1 Georgia (SEC champ), No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ), No. 3 Miami (ACC champ) and No. 4 Oklahoma State (Big 12 champ). Each would receive a bye. Eight remaining seeds would play on-campus first-round games. Those matchups would be: No. 12 TBD (the top Group of 5 conference champion) at No. 5 Texas; No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Ole Miss; No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 USC; and No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon.

Missouri, ranked No. 11 above, would not make this version of the playoff with the fifth conference champion from the Group of 5 taking its place.