The 2024-2025 Big 12 basketball regular season is coming to a close. BYU and first-year head coach Kevin Young are playing their best basketball of the season and are in sole possession of fifth place in the Big 12 standings. In this article, we will use KenPom game probabilities to project the final Big 12 standings and the corresponding Big 12 bracket.

Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Colorado played games on Monday night. The other 12 teams in the conference have four regular season games remaining. Here are the projected records for all 16 teams according to KenPom game probabilities.

BYU is projected to finish a full game or even more ahead of Kansas for the fifth seed in the conference. The Jayhawks narrowly survived on the road at Colorado on Monday night, and they have a brutal schedule to close the regular season: vs Texas Tech, at Houston, vs Arizona. If there is a tie between BYU and Kansas, BYU will win the tiebreaker due to the Cougars’ head-to-head win over the Jayhawks.

Iowa State is projected to finisha full game or more ahead of BYU to secure the double bye to the quarterfinals. BYU could reach Iowa State in the standings, but it will require a win in Ames over the Cyclones.

If BYU holds onto a top-eight seed in the Big 12 conference standings, they will get a first-round bye in the Big 12 tournament. In the scenario outlined above, BYU would get a first-round bye before facing the winner of UCF-Cincinnati.

BYU is 2-1 this season against Cincinnati and UCF. A win in the second round would advance BYU to the quarterfinals against four-seed Iowa State.