Ceiling: His three-point percentage improves, the gap widens between his assists and turnovers, and he returns to an All-NBA roster.

After signing a historic contract extension last summer, Brown had the weight of the basketball world on his shoulders. That didn’t stop him from authoring a special season, which he ended on the highest of high notes by taking home MVP honors of both the Eastern Conference finals and the NBA Finals.

He could have been a pinch more productive, though, a sentiment apparently held by All-NBA voters who kept him off those rosters. Getting his All-NBA spot back is doable, especially if he can revive his three-point percentage (34.8 percent over the past three seasons; 39 over the two campaigns prior) and create more separation with his averages in assists (3.6) and turnovers (2.4).

Floor: His shooting rates worsen, his turnovers increase and he gets left out off of an All-NBA team again.

Brown’s outside-the-arc regression is real. He hasn’t simply saw his percentage drop, but his volume is down, too. In 2020-21, he averaged 2.8 threes on 39.7 percent shooting. Last season, those numbers dipped to 2.1 and 35.4, respectively. He also couldn’t find his touch from the foul line last season, either (70.3 percent).

If he isn’t an efficient shooter, that might put more pressure on his playmaking. It hasn’t exactly been a huge asset for him. Just two seasons back, his averages in assists (3.5) and turnovers (2.9) were uncomfortably close. If his shot remains erratic, and he can’t keep his giveaways down, he might be kept off the All-NBA teams again.