Jasmine Paolini and Qinwen Zheng will face off in a straight shootout for a semi-final berth at the WTA Finals.

With Elena Rybakina eliminated, Wednesday’s outcome between both debutants will determine who progresses from the Purple Group along with world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.

Match preview

© Imago

An outstanding year for Paolini could continue when she takes on in-form Zheng for a place in the last four of the year-end tournament in Riyadh.

Despite drawing the best out of Sabalenka in Monday’s round-robin match, the Italian could not force a decider in the 3-6, 5-7 loss to the Belarussian.

That loss means the world No. 4 is 1-1 after two matches in Saudi Arabia, cranking up the pressure ahead of the concluding encounter of this stage, with the victor guaranteed a semi-final spot against the winner of the Orange Group.

However, the two-time Grand Slam finalist enters the encounter without a victory against Zheng, including their recent match-up in Wuhan, where the Chinese won in three sets.

A similar outcome on the indoor court in Riyadh will mark the end of the Italian star’s singles campaign at the Finals, even if it should not dampen an impressive year for the 28-year-old.

© Imago

For Zheng, Wednesday brings an added kind of pressure: winless against Sabalenka and Rybakina in their previous encounters, she heads into her fourth match-up with Paolini without a defeat in previous meetings.

Although the 22-year-old fell to the Belarussian in her tournament opener, she got the better of Rybakina in three to set up a mouthwatering battle with Paolini to clinch second spot in the group.

Zheng’s first victory over the 2022 Wimbledon champion was her 29th in 34 since this year’s Championships, the most on the WTA Tour in that period to highlight her consistency.

The Olympic champion and seventh seed is the favourite to progress to the semis in her Finals debut, but she must be wary of Paolini, whose affable personality contrasts with her all-action, aggressive style on the court.

Although observers have suggested that fatigue could thwart the Olympic champion’s ambition in Riyadh, nothing shown against Sabalenka and Rybakina suggests that the No. 7 seed will let up in the year-end event.

Tournament so far

Jasmine Paolini:

Round Robin: vs. Elena Rybakina 7–6(5) 6–4
Round Robin: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 3–6 5–7

Qinwen Zheng:

Round Robin: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 3–6 4–6
Round Robin: vs. Elena Rybakina 7–6(4) 3–6 6–1

Head To Head

Wuhan Open (2024) – Quarter-final: Zheng 6-2 3-6 6-3

Zhengzhou (2023) – Semi-final: Zheng 6-2 6-3

Palermo (2023) – Final: Zheng 6-4 1-6 6-1

Zheng leads her head-to-head with Paolini 3-0 heading into Wednesday’s battle to seal second place.

Two of those meetings have gone the distance, including their recent match in Wuhan, where the Chinese player converting four of eight breakpoint opportunities outdid the No. 4 seed’s two from six to swing the encounter in her favour.

The Olympic champion’s win over Rybakina was her 20th three-set victory this year, a tour-leading tally in 2024.

We say: Zheng to win in three sets

Another three-setter is anticipated in this mouthwatering battle between Paolini and Zheng, with both debutants putting all the stops to advance to the semi-final.

We back the big-serving Chinese player to go through, aided by her deliveries and battling qualities to go the distance.

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