Daniil Medvedev 21/100 | Gael Monfils 33/10

This promises to be a blockbuster first-round clash. Daniil Medvedev has enjoyed a rather curious campaign. The consistent Russian comes into this year’s China Open with a highly creditable 39-16 record.

Having said that, he is yet to win a title this year and lost both of his recent Laver Cup ties. Medvedev has still managed some strong results this season, finishing runner-up at the Aussie Open and Indian Wells Masters.

His form surprisingly tapered off at the start of the North American hardcourt series (which is usually his wheelhouse). He was handed 2nd round exits in Montreal and Cincinnati before being thoroughly dismantled by Sinner in the US Open quarterfinal.

Medvedev will be hoping for a pick-me-up in an event where he finished runner-up last year. These hardcourts aren’t especially quick, allowing Medvedev the space to hang back miles behind the baseline. He is currently rocking a three-match losing streak and he could do with an improved outing this week.

38-year-old Frenchman Gael Monfils has enjoyed a decent campaign (especially for a man at his point in his career). The beloved Frenchman brings a positive 21-19 record into this event.

He has reached two semifinals this season (in Qatar and Mallorca). He has always flirted with contention in some big tournaments, reaching the 4th round at Indian Wells and the third round at Wimbledon.

He wasn’t exceptional during the North American hardcourt, culminating in a hard-fought second round defeat to Casper Rudd at the US Open. But the mercurial Frenchman gave us a taste of his brilliance in Cincinnati, picking up one of the biggest wins of his career against Carlos Alcaraz.

Monfils still has that inalienable ability to deliver on the big stage and he won’t be overawed by this draw. In fact, I think he will relish it.

The Verdict: Medvedev to win in straight sets 64/100

These two share the head-to-head spoils at two wins apiece. Medvedev won their most recent encounter at this year’s Monte Carlo Masters. Interestingly, Monfils leads their hardcourt rivalry 2-1.

This should prove to be a fascinating contest. Monfils has simplified his game this season, conserving his energy by looking to play more first-strike tennis. That has led to some inconsistency and plenty of unforced errors.

I don’t think Medvedev will mind Monfils taking the initiative and will just hang back in the pocket and look to counter. This match – especially on these surfaces – is just tailormade for the counterpunching stylistics of Medvedev.