Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Projecting the Playoffs after Week 3

Posted by Admin September 15, 2024 Football

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Nebraska helped themselves with a win, and Illinois helped to set up a battle of undefeated and ranked teams for this Friday night. Georgia looked mortal against Kentucky, and the real Oregon finally showed up against Oregon State, but neither moves in my projections this week for the playoffs. The only change is Washington State moving into the #12 spot as the projected 5th highest ranked conference champion.

Projected Final Rankings for College Football Playoffs

Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten champ)
Georgia (12-1 SEC champ)
Miami (12-1 ACC champ)
Oklahoma State (12-1 Big 12 champ)
Ole Miss (11-1)
Oregon (11-1)
Alabama (11-1)
Texas (11-2 – loses SEC championship game)
Penn State (11-2 – loses Big Ten championship game)
Utah (11-2 – loses Big 12 championship game)
Notre Dame (11-1)
Washington State (12-0 Pac 12 champ)

Teams on the bubble for at-large bids: Tennessee, Missouri, Clemson, Louisville, USC, Kansas State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Oklahoma

Teams on the bubble for 5th highest ranked conference champion: Northern Illinois, Memphis, UNLV, Boise State, Texas State, Appalachian State, Liberty

Breaking Down Ranked Teams into Tiers

I have listed teams in tiers based on how many more losses a team could sustain and still be reasonably expected to make the playoffs (or at least be on the bubble). Winning a conference championship game would override their number of losses, and losing in a conference championship game might not count the same as a loss in the regular season.

Tier 1 (Could lose 2 more games and still reasonably expect to make the playoffs)

SEC
Georgia
Texas
Alabama

Big Ten
Ohio State

Tier 2 (Could lose 1 more game and still reasonably expect to make the playoffs)

SEC
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Missouri
Oklahoma

Big Ten
Oregon
Penn State
USC
Nebraska
Illinois
Indiana
Rutgers
Michigan State

ACC
Miami
Louisville
Syracuse
North Carolina
Cal
Pitt
Duke

Big 12
Utah
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Iowa State
UCF
BYU
Arizona State

Pac 12
Washington State

There were lots of teams who dropped out of Tier 2 from last week due to losing their Week 3 games: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Washington, Wisconsin, Purdue, Boston College, Virginia, Arizona, TCU, and Oregon State.

*This list will be updated each week as the season evolves. A Tier 3 will be added as soon as the number of undefeated and 1-loss teams dwindles down far enough to make it necessary. For those who want to understand a little more about the politics that will be going on behind the scenes as the playoff committee meets to rank the teams during the season and eventually choose who is invited into the 12-team playoff, this article explains several things that will likely affect who gets in. Here is what last week’s projections looked like.