The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 1 slate.

Sunday

Panthers (+4) over SAINTS

Divisional round underdogs of fewer than 6.5 points in Weeks 1-3 are 94-94-2 outright since 2003. Bettors over that span enjoy a 22 percent return on investment.

This is the perfect time to attack if you are a believer in Carolina, as I am.

Derek Carr isn’t much of an upgrade over Bryce Young, who has loads to prove in 2024, and the Panthers might not know they are bad yet.

Titans (+3.5) over BEARS

Rookie sensation Caleb Williams’ NFL debut won’t be all sunshine and rainbows.

Rookie quarterbacks have a combined 16-35-1 record in openers, including 0-7-1 in the past five seasons.

The last rookie QB to win his opener?

The mighty Sam Darnold, in 2018 against the Lions.

Surely the Bears could win this one, but you won’t see me laying more than a field goal.

DOLPHINS (-3.5) over Jaguars

They’re healthy, for now.

Miami is really better everywhere, especially at the playmaker spots, and Jacksonville didn’t improve enough for my liking.

There are some modest defensive acquisitions, and Ezra Cleveland should help at guard, but this is still one of the worst offensive lines in football.

And don’t forget that star pass rusher Jaelan Phillips is back in the fold for Miami.

BENGALS (-8.5) over Patriots

No one likes to lay this big of a number on the favorites, but the Bengals are too talented and New England is too messy.

The Bengals will enjoy the return of Ja’Marr Chase, who figures to be matched up with star (that you have not heard about yet) cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

If Bill Belichick were out there, I’d be more interested in taking the eight.

GIANTS (+1.5) over Vikings

It’s make or break time for Brian Daboll and the Big Blue brain trust.

The Giants have the clear edge defensively in this matchup, so don’t try to sell me on Darnold being anything more than a backup quarterback at this point.

This is one of the few matchups where Daniel Jones will actually be the “A” side of a game.

FALCONS (-3) over Steelers

New look, who dis?

Both of these teams come in completely different than the year prior, and though we all respect Mike Tomlin’s coaching ability, you should be able to see that the Falcons look, sound and feel like a 12-win team.

The Steelers are run-of-the-mill at best. If this were in Pittsburgh, I’d be a bit more hesitant, but this has a home Atlanta showcase written all over it.

Texans (-3) over COLTS

Money keeps coming in on the Colts, and that’s fine with me.

Houston adds Stefon Diggs to an already loaded offensive unit, while Indianapolis profiles as having a below-average defense.

No sophomore slump for C.J. Stroud, he can’t fail with this offense and improved defense in 2024.

Cardinals (+6.5) over BILLS

We don’t dig the Bills offseason.

Sure, Josh Allen is one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL, but he turns it over far too much, loses the aforementioned Diggs, and the defense is starting Damar Hamlin at safety.

What a disaster this roster has turned into. Arizona is a sneaky good team with a loaded offense and the coaching edge, as Jonathan Gannon is a dark-horse coach of the year candidate.

Broncos (+6) over SEAHAWKS

We’re going to find out immediately if Sean Payton still has his fastball.

Bo Nix should be better than advertised, and they’re looking to run the ball and play defense.

This should lead to lower scoring and plenty of covers from the Broncos, whose defense should take a step forward after being bottom of the barrel in 2023.

CHARGERS (-3) over Raiders

“Hollywood” Jim Harbaugh hosts the Raiders in what could be a neutral field as Oakland fans file in.

Still, Gardner Minshew isn’t Justin Herbert, and the Harbaugh rushing attack should suffocate an overmatched Antonio Pierce.

Think about the coaching mismatch and thank me later. This one won’t be close.

Cowboys (+2.5) over BROWNS

We’re all set on backing Deshaun Watson as a favorite against a Cowboys team that is at full strength.

Dak Prescott is playing for a contract and was already leading the league’s best offense in 2023.

Dallas was fourth in total DVOA last season, and Cleveland came in eighth.

These are two great teams in what should be a fun matchup.

BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Commanders

Baker Mayfield is now the veteran, while Jayden Daniels steps in as a dynamic rookie with not much to throw to.

We already discussed the rookie stat in NFL season openers, but Daniels is probably being put in the worst position of any of the three starters.

His offensive line is ranked 27th in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, and his only notable receiver is Terry McLaurin. Yuk.

RAMS (+4.5) over Lions

L.A. should be as good any team in the NFC while Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford remain healthy.

Betting on the NFL?

This offense is lethal, and though the Dan Campbell lovefest raged throughout the playoffs and offseason, you can color me a skeptic.

Sean McVay is a top-two coach in the NFL, and we’re getting the hook here, take it.

MONDAY

Jets (+4.5) over 49ERS

Gang Green are my early Super Bowl pick, and I’d argue they are every bit as talented as the 49ers.

Aaron Rodgers has been getting rave reviews in training camp, and the offensive line should be improved.

Rodgers is 3-1 in his past four at San Francisco. Get your popcorn ready.