The market needs to chill out on the Washington Commanders (7-3). While the Commanders are exceeding their preseason expectations, they aren’t in the same tier as their NFC East co-tenant, the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2). These teams meet for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 11 and D.C. is a +3.5 underdog in Philly. 

But, when you give the Eagles a 1.5-2.0-point boost for being the home team, this line is disrespectful. Philadelphia has a higher net EPA, scoring margin, and yards-per-play differential, and these teams have played a similar strength of schedule. Plus, the Eagles are better at every position except linebacker, which isn’t a premium position anymore. 

We are getting a good price on Philadelphia because of its disastrous end to last season and the Commanders are the surprise team in the NFL this year. However, the Eagles are on a five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 37-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8. Philly is 3-2 vs. the spread in the last five games, but those are “bad beats”. 

Pro Football Focus (PFF) data scientist Timo Riske does a statistical recap for every game weekly and includes “noise-canceled scores”, looking at just raw efficiency. The Eagles beat the Browns 20-16 in Week 6 and the Jaguars 28-23 in Week 9, failing to cover as favorites in both. Yet, Philly beat Cleveland 25-13 on the “noise-canceled score”, and Jacksonville, 28-13. 

Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings 

The Eagles have a strength-on-weakness edge on the ground. Philadelphia has the highest rushing rate in the NFL and ranks second in rushing yards per game. Whereas Washington’s defense is 28th in rushing yards allowed per game. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley is the second betting favorite for NFL Offensive Player of the Year at DraftKings entering Week 11. 

Furthermore, the Commanders live and die on big plays, but the Eagles don’t give up a lot of explosives. Washington’s offense is eighth in explosive play rate and Philadelphia’s defense is third in explosive plays allowed, according to NFL data scientist Sam Hoppen. 

Also, Philly’s offensive line can neutralize the strength of D.C.’s defense, its pass rush. The Commanders are sixth in sack rate and Eagles starting LT Jordan Mailata returns from injury this week. PFF grades Mailata third among 76 qualifying NFL tackles this season, and RT Lane Johnson ranks seventh. 

Hence, Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts will have time to attack Washington’s weak pass coverage. The Commanders are 27th in QB Rating allowed on defense. They acquired four-time Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline, but Lattimore is still sidelined by an injury. 

Eagles WR A.J. Brown catches a touchdown on Washington Commanders CB Emmanuel Forbes at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

Meanwhile, the Eagles are 7-0 in games Pro Bowl WR A.J. Brown plays this season. Brown is PFF’s second-best receiver among 125 qualified NFL wideouts. In his four games vs. the Commanders since going to Philly, Brown has 23 catches for 397 receiving yards with 5 receiving touchdowns. 

Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels will come back down to earth and the league will figure him out. Finally, Philadelphia’s defense is improving under first-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have led the NFL in yards per play allowed, nearly a full yard better than the next closest team, the San Francisco 49ers (4.6-3.7). 

Prediction: Eagles 31, Commanders 17 

• This is my favorite bet in NFL Week 11 and will be on my Circa Million VI card this week. I’m 11-1 on picks for Thursday Night Football games submitted to the Circa MillIon NFL handicapping contest since last season. This includes hitting the Cincinnati Bengals +6 in their 35-34 loss at the Baltimore Ravens last week.

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‘Same Game Parlay’ at DraftKings (+1600) 

1. Philadelphia -3.5 for the game.
2. Eagles WR A.J. Brown anytime TD.
3. Washington RB Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards.
4. Commanders WR Noah Brown UNDER 40.5 Receiving Yards.

I’ve already laid out my case for the first two legs of my Same Game Parlay (SGP): I got the Eagles winning by double digits and A.J. Brown dominating Washington’s defense. 

Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. runs the ball on the Philadelphia Eagles. (Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

Philly’s defense is better at stopping the pass. Robinson has gained 53+ rushing yards in 21 of his 34 career games, and four of his seven contests this season. He has rushed for 86, 45, and 59 yards in his three career games against the Eagles. Adding Robinson’s rushing yards prop in this SGP exponentially increases the payout. 

Eagles six-time Pro Bowl CB Darius Slay will line defend N. Brown Thursday. Per PFF, N. Brown’s 30.7 matchup grade vs. Philadelphia’s secondary (out of 100) is one of the worst of Week 11. N. Brown is 95th in yards after the catch (YAC) per reception among 109 wide receivers with at least 19 targets, per PFF, and Philly’s defense is third in YAC allowed. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.