It’s that time of year, hoops fans.

Every year, around mid-to-late February, we get finality on that specific NBA season’s “40-before-20” teams. If you’re unfamiliar with the adage, former legendary Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers head coach Phil Jackson once said that an NBA team is only a real championship contender if it wins 40 regular season games before losing 20 of them. This sentiment makes logical sense because, you know, a great team should be able to win two-thirds of its slated games.

The 40-before-20 model has held true enough to where only four teams in NBA history have ever won the title — the 1995 Houston Rockets, the 2004 Detroit Pistons,  the 2006 Miami Heat, and the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks (in a 72-game season) — despite falling short of the mark.

With the Memphis Grizzlies’ loss on Sunday night, we have cemented this year’s 40-before-20 club. Suffice it to say one of these three teams will be the likely next NBA champion:

• Cleveland Cavaliers (who own the NBA’s best record at the time of this writing and lead the Eastern Conference)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (who are tied with the Cavaliers in the loss column at the time of this writing and lead the Western Conference)
• Boston Celtics (the reigning NBA champions, who are comfortably placed in the No. 2 seed in the East)

Current title betting odds aren’t exactly in line with the top of the NBA standings.

At the moment, despite possessing just the third-best record in the league, oddsmakers with FanDuel give the Celtics the best odds (+170) to run it back and repeat. The Thunder (+210) and Cavaliers (+750) aren’t far behind. Oklahoma City’s odds are likely more robust because there hasn’t been another consistent Western Conference challenger to emerge to this point. At the same time, Cleveland still has to prove itself against Boston to likely get to the Finals in the first place.

On paper, the Cavaliers’ road is harder.

After this trio, there is a significant drop-off, which is in concert with the 40-before-20 rule. Squads like the Denver Nuggets (+1300), New York Knicks (+1500), and Los Angeles Lakers (+2000) all make appearances as definitive second-tier title contenders. While they didn’t qualify for 40-before-20, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to see any of these teams make a deep playoff run of their own.

That’s because none of this is to say that a team’s chances of winning the title are kaput if they fall short of 40-before-20. After all, everyone still has to play the games. It’s more about logical, mathematical probability based on history rather than outright slamming the door on other possible contenders. No one will throw in the towel based on one specific rule from one person in NBA annals. It’s also worth noting that 40-before-20 applies more to the NBA Finals themselves. Plenty of teams who didn’t reach the mark still qualified for the championship round. Winning 40 before losing 20 is mostly about winning four series, not three.

However, the fact remains that it’s rare and pretty unprecedented for someone outside of the 40-before-20 club to win that season’s title. The Cavaliers, Thunder, and Celtics have all shown they are significantly less flawed than the rest of the league, which tracks with them being a cut above everyone else. They are all rightful favorites.

Feel free to make a bet on anyone outside of this trio to win the 2025 title. Anything could happen. Sports are not scripted, folks.

Just remember that NBA history says you’re probably throwing away your money if you do.