The questions have always been there for Penn State fans.

What if Penn State’s unbeaten teams had been able to settle it on the field? What if Penn State hadn’t been on the outside looking in? What if Penn State got a chance to make up for that early season loss?

In reality, we aren’t alone in wondering those things. This year’s first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff has changed the way that we view champions.

Before the BCS, much of this was entirely mythical with championship voting even coming before bowl games for a stretch.

The BCS brought us away from conference requirements and allowed us to “settle things on the field” unlike in 1994 or 1997 or other years.

The four-team playoff allowed more chances for everyone to take aim at the title – and for some to earn a mulligan for one bad season performance.

Now, the 12-teamer still has its naysayers before the first one has ever been completed. But it has opened up college football to a time when a team can overcome even two bad games (depending on your conference) or allow teams a second shot at beating another team. It’s made this more like the NCAA basketball tournament where a hot team with a nice draw can play itself to a title.

As a lifelong Penn State fan, I welcome it. I know the history and write about it often here. I was frustrated as a kid watching the 1994 team go unbeaten, yet untitled. And at that point as a young Nittany Lion fan, I learned it wasn’t the first time that happened.

I was frustrated in 2005 and 2008 when two great Penn State teams suffered road losses marred by late-game bad calls that cost them a chance to play for a national championship.

And the last straw certainly came in 2016 when Penn State played itself back from a bad September and into the national spotlight as they claimed a Big Ten title only to watch the team they had finished ahead of in the standings get a playoff berth.

All of this led to a couple of days where I pondered the ultimate what if: what Penn State teams might have brought titles to Happy Valley if this had been existence long ago?

So, I sat down and started to do some research. I looked back at college football seasons of the past and Penn State’s place within those years. I considered where the Lions finished, how the rest of the nation looked, and used a little imagination to think about how Penn State might have fared in 12-team playoffs of the past. Also, for clarification, I started with Paterno’s first teams.

Is my methodology perfect? Of course not. But feel free to disagree in the comments below as I picture some of Penn State’s most famous (and a few forgotten) teams and what chances they had at bringing home a playoff title.

So, before listing a whole bunch of football teams from the past and writing about them, let me say that there are different categories. I’ll explain a bit about each and my thinking as I introduce them. But as we’ve seen through two rounds of this playoff, not all participants are equal. There were some years where Penn State would have hosted and been a threat to win the whole thing. There were other years where a Penn State team would have made the field and we’d have suffered through a miserable end to the year in a blowout loss on the road (looking at you right now 1997).

As I’ve said, feel free to comment below on what you liked, what you didn’t, what you think I got right, wrong, or anything else.

THE BUBBLE TEAMS

Pretty straightforward and simple here. These are Penn State teams that I believe would have been considered “on the bubble” and amongst the last teams to get in a playoff. In basketball terms, I don’t know that I would consider any of them to be a “bracket buster”.

1999: I don’t know if this team would have gotten into a playoff. They were fourth in the Big Ten despite being predicted preseason Top 5. They did have some impressive wins, hammering preseason No. 3 Arizona, winning in the Orange Bowl against a ranked Miami team, and winning against Drew Brees in West Lafayette. But their late season collapse, dropping the final three regular season games, probably would have kept the committee from putting them in the bracket.

2018: Another team that I think probably just misses the cut. They finished No. 12 in the final rankings and you can argue that they peaked in an early September loss to Ohio State. Ultimately, they were a 9-3 team without any signature win on their resume, but they would have been coming off a couple straight playoff appearances that we’ll get to later.

2002: A solid team with stars on each side of the ball. But, it’s also a team that lost close games to the three best teams on its schedule. Larry Johnson ran for 1,000 yards and Zack Mills was throwing to an NFL receiver, while Michael Haynes, Jimmy Kennedy, and Spice Adams gave this group an NFL-caliber defensive line. Ohio State won the national title and they needed a defensive score to beat this group at home. The Lions likely would have gotten in the playoff, having finished No. 10 in the polls at the end of the season, and there was enough talent that I wouldn’t have been surprised if they pulled an upset.

IN THE DANCE – WITH FEW A MOVES

These Penn State teams would have been locks to make the 12-team affair. These are also teams that I think could have won a game in the bracket, but were not serious national title contenders.

2019: Let’s start with the most recent team on this list. LSU ultimately won the national title and the Tigers were one of the more dominant offenses in recent memory. This Penn State group, meanwhile, was really a year away from being a title threat. The running game, led by Journey Brown, and the disruptive defense, highlighted by Micah Parsons, would have kept them in games against most teams. But, Sean Clifford was banged up late in the year and there would have been questions about him winning a game against a good defense as a sophomore.

1971: This team was unbeaten, albeit untested, until a late season trip to Neyland Stadium where the Lions were blown out against Tennessee. Penn State did rebound to rout Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Still, this was a year dominated by Nebraska, who beat Oklahoma in the game of the century and blew out everyone else. So, the Lions weren’t likely to win a national title.

1972: Tennessee got Penn State again, this time to open the year down at Neyland Stadium. The Lions ran off a 10-game win streak and earned a showdown aganst No. 2 Oklahoma. The Sooners shut out Penn State 14-0 and USC beat No. 3 Ohio State 42-17 in the Rose Bowl. You can see this was a good football team, but not a true threat at winning a championship.

1997: I feel dirty even writing about this team in this space. Penn State was in the mix for No. 1 the whole season, but their November performances against Michigan and Michigan State showed that they weren’t really going to challenge for a title. The Wolverines and Nebraska wound up splitting the title while Penn State limped to the finish. Penn State would have been in the bracket, but there are major questions about what team would have shown up for an opening round matchup.

MOVIN’ ON – WITH A CHANCE

Some of these teams were certainly better than others. But, these are teams through this exercise that I have identified that I believe would have had a chance of reaching the semifinals of a tournament – based on bracket, luck, maybe a little bit of help, etc. To be blunt, they are a lot of teams that remind me of this year’s group that we will watch next week in the playoff semifinals.

2009: This Penn State team had a strong offensive line, an experienced quarterback, a good running game, star linebackers, and a clutch kicker. They also fell flat in their two biggest home games. But this isn’t about remembering those losses, rather it’s about remembering how they knocked off an SEC team on New Year’s Day. This is a group that could have made some noise.

2022: Didn’t I just write about a team with talent and experience all over the field that came up short in its two biggest regular season games? Well, here’s another one. They, similarly, exacted some revenge with a huge bowl win that would have been that much sweeter had it been a playoff quarterfinal.

2023: Well, here we go again. Penn State was 10-2. Good, but not elite. Michigan won the title, but I’m sure Penn State would have loved another shot at them and I could easily have seen the Lions getting that in a semifinal.

1991: Miami and Washington split the title. Penn State got an up close look at the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl earlier in the season, losing 26-20. Florida State, who had beaten Penn State the previous bowl season, was also in the mix. I easily could have seen those four teams making up your playoff semifinalists. Penn State ultimately won the Fiesta Bowl and finished No. 3.

1967: The first team that I examined. There were no major conference teams that went unbeaten. Honestly, this year felt a bit like this season: a lot of good, but not great. The Lions wound up No. 10 and 8-2-1. I think they could have ridden chaos close to a national title.

1974: Oklahoma and USC split the national title and Ohio State was a force in the Big Ten, though they dropped the Rose Bowl. Penn State dropped two games to unranked teams during the year, but rallied to finish strong and dominated the Cotton Bowl. Paterno’s teams tended to peak late in the year and the Lions would have been a tough out.

1975: Oklahoma was really, really good with five wins over Top 20 teams during the season. Penn State ultimately lost to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, a sign the Lions weren’t a true title contender. But, with the right draw, that might have been a semifinal.

1980: A young Penn State team that dropped games to great teams: Nebraska and Pitt. Georgia won the national title with a narrow win against Notre Dame as Penn State closed its bowl season by dominating Ohio State. Another year where Penn State was probably a half step below the top tier of college football, but could have won a playoff game or two.

1990: A weird year in college football that saw Georgia Tech and Colorado split a title. Really though, it was year of independent dominance in the sport as Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Penn State were all ranked in the Top 7 entering bowl season. The Irish, who Penn State had upset in South Bend earlier in the year, would have knocked off the Buffs in the Orange Bowl if not for a controversial clipping call. The Lions were playing great to close out the season, though their loss to Florida State in the Blockbuster Bowl showed they weren’t necessarily a title contender.

1996: Florida, Florida State, and Ohio State were the dominant teams all season long. The Buckeyes would drop a low-scoring affair to Michigan in the week’s last season (sound familiar) before winning the Rose Bowl (sound more familiar). Meanwhile, Florida and Florida State would play two epic late-season games that decided the national title. Penn State was a step below that triumvirate, but they could have made a run with the way they closed the season (three lopsided wins over ranked teams in their final four games).

2016: Penn State was the hottest team in the country, riding stars like Saquon Barkley and Chris Godwin to nine straight wins and a conference title. In the current system, they would have had a first round bye. Maybe that would have slowed down McSorley and company, but I think they would have found a way to keep their streak going.

THE “THEY HAD THEIR CHANCES”

I pause to remember a pair of teams that are truly special in Penn State lore. At the same time, a lot of this exercise has been thinking of the teams that didn’t get the chance to play for it all. There are two teams who unfortunately came up short in that effort. Again, these teams are all-time greats and there’s a chance they’ll have company in a couple weeks.

1978: They knocked off three Top 10 teams in the regular season on their way to becoming the first Penn State team ever to be ranked No. 1. They took that ranking into the Sugar Bowl where they lost in heartbreaking fashion to No. 2 Alabama.

1985: The Lions were coming off a disappointing year, but opened with a win against No. 7 Maryland and later snuck by No. 10 Alabama. By late November, Penn State was No. 1 in the country and capped off an unbeaten regular season by thumping Notre Dame and Pitt. Unfortunately, things went sideways in the Orange Bowl and Keith Jackson helped Oklahoma knock off Penn State.

THE “WE DON’T CHANGE HISTORIES”

Penn State’s two national titles involved the Lions knocking off the No. 1 teams. Now, if you want to have the conversation about if they would have reached the finals, have at it. But, if you disagree, I’m telling Ray Isom and he’s going to hunt you down and hit you like you’re a Miami wide receiver.

1982: They were near the top of the rankings all season and overcame a loss at Alabama during the regular season to win a title. Even the best teams have a bad day.

1986: You know the story. The Lions won one of college football’s most famous games, so we’ll just assume they would have exacted some revenge against No. 3 Oklahoma in the semifinals.

THE “THEY WOULD’VE KILLED FOR THIS”

These four were as good as anyone and didn’t get the chance to prove it. They all went unbeaten and certainly would have been teams capable – and maybe even favored – to win a national title with the current format. To paraphrase Gene Hackman in the movie “Hoosiers”, they’re national champions in my book.

1968: They played the schedule they had in front of them – and it wasn’t great. Penn State went unbeaten and finished No. 2 in the country with its lone win against a ranked team happening vs. No. 6 Kansas in the Orange Bowl. Ohio State went unbeaten to win the title.

1969: Nearly the same team did nearly the same thing, going unbeaten and knocking off Missouri in the Orange Bowl. This was the famous Richard Nixon year as he called Texas the national champion after they beat Arkansas to close out the regular season.

1973: Penn State went 12-0 with only two of those games by single digits. They also had the Heisman Trophy winner. But, there were a lot of unbeaten teams in the country as Alabama and Notre Dame split the national title.

1994: The one that most of us are most familiar with when it comes to Penn State’s history. The Lions had one of the most loaded offenses of all time and they were the first unbeaten Big Ten team since Ohio State’s national title in 1968. But, all that got Penn State was No. 2 in the rankings.

THE REAL THREATS

Here are four other teams that I have identified as having had very real opportunities to win the national title in this present format. Maybe it was an early season loss that cost them? Or maybe some bad officiating? Maybe it was just a tough stretch in the schedule or some other factor? Whatever it was – I can’t put these teams with the four above, who must deserve their flowers. But here are four teams that I think – much like this 2024 edition of Penn State football still has – could have made a run all the way to the national title.

1981: A year later, they won the title. But in 1981, Penn State was ranked No. 1 in the country before a loss at Miami. Then, there was another loss on the road at Alabama. But this group closed strong, blowing out No. 1 Pitt 48-14 and stomping Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Allen and USC in the Fiesta Bowl. Clemson was unbeaten and clearly a deserving champion. But the Tigers had late close wins against No. 9 North Carolina and No. 4 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. Todd Blackledge, Curt Warner, and the rest of Penn State’s 1981 team finished the year No. 3 in the country. But, with an expanded playoff, they very well migh have finished No. 1.

2008: The Big Ten champions were, in my opinion, Penn State’s best shot at winning a national title since the 1994 team. Florida and Oklahoma wound up playing in the BCS title game that year and I know this group lost in a virtual road game against USC in the Rose Bowl. But this Nittany Lion group had a dominant offensive line with NFL talent, dynamic playmakers on the outside, and a dual-threat quarterback. The defense was loaded with NFL players, too. Only a last-second, controversial loss at Iowa came between these guys and an undefeated regular season. I would have loved to see this senior-laden group participate in the playoffs.

2017: Penn State climbed to No. 2 in the country midway through the season before two crippling, last-second road losses at Ohio State and Michigan State. Those games cost the Lions any chance at a national title, which obviously wouldn’t be the case today. Back when Greg McElroy didn’t just shill for SEC teams, he repeatedly said during Penn State’s Fiesta Bowl win against Washington that the Lions were as good as anyone in the country that year. I still believe that to this day.

2005: Full disclosure, this is my favorite Penn State football team of all time. Texas and USC were No. 1 and No. 2 all year and played an all-time great BCS title game. But here’s the thing with Penn State. They had the nation’s best defense. They lacked explosiveness at receiver after Derrick Williams went down in the controversial loss to Michigan, but the Lions still had Michael Robinson. Your 2005 fun fact about Robinson? His Penn State offense never left the field for the final time without a lead. I would have loved to see him on the field in the fourth quarter against anyone that season.

There you have it. Congratulations if you made it to the end. Do you disagree with the tiers? Is there another Penn State team that you think could have made a run? Comment below as we wait to see where we will rank this 2024 group in the future.