The Houston Rockets have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season, running to the semifinals of the NBA Cup before losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Now, they’re back in action on Thursday with a favorable matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, who are just 5-22 this season and expected to make some moves at the deadline. According to NBA insiders Jake Fischer and Marc Stein, everyone but Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi and Herb Jones is available to be dealt by the Pels at the deadline.

Oddsmakers have set Houston as a major favorite in this game – and rightfully so – at home. 

Can Alperen Sengun (questionable) and company cover the spread to get back in the win column?

Here’s a breakdown of Thursday’s matchup, including the latest odds, players to consider in the prop market and my prediction. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Pelicans Injury Report

Rockets Injury Report

New Orleans Pelicans Best NBA Prop Bets

With Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram out, Trey Murphy III has been relied on to take on a bigger role on offense.

He’s averaging 18.1 points per game while shooting 41.7 percent from the field and 32.8 percent from 3, putting up at least 16 points in 10 of his last 12 games.

While Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating, Murphy’s usage should be enough to carry him over this prop on Thursday. 

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bets

This is a favorable matchup for the Rockets on the glass against a New Orleans team that is 27th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game – but this prop is a little high for Jabari Smith Jr.

The former lottery pick is averaging just 6.8 rebounds per game this season, and he’s failed to clear 7.5 boards in 17 of his 26 games. Not only that, but this game has blowout potential where Smith Jr. may not see his usual complement of minutes. 

If this falls to 6.5, I’d consider the OVER more, but at the current number, the UNDER is the play. 

Houston has been solid as a home favorite this season, covering the spread in seven of 11 games while winning those matchups by an average margin of 10.9 points per game.

This is the first matchup between these teams this season, but New Orleans has been downright awful, losing four straight and nine of its last 10.

Not only that, but the Pelicans rank 29th in offensive rating, 28th in defensive rating and 29th in net rating so far this season.

With Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram both out, the Pelicans’ margin for error is extremely thin, especially against an elite defense like Houston (No. 2 in the NBA). Now, bettors may want to wait to make sure that Sengun (questionable) is able to go before placing a wager on Houston.

Still, on the season, the Pelicans are 3-8 against the spread as road dogs, and I don’t expect them to cover in this matchup. 

Pick: Rockets -8.5 (-112)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.