The issue is not that Locked drew outside, it is that Saudi Crown drew inside.

These are the top two horses in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Morning-line favorite Locked has a style that makes him post agnostic as opposed to Saudi Crown, whose early speed benefits from saving ground with that short run into the first turn going 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream.

Post 2 was among the best-case scenarios for Saudi Crown, who won his comeback race last out after laying an egg in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He tracked the pace that day, and although Track Phantom did little to flatter that performance in his next start, Saudi Crown looked just fine on his own last out. He can win this gate to wire, or he can track the speed without losing ground from the beneficial inside post.

Locked looked great when returning from a long layoff and looked even better second time off the layoff when winning the Cigar Mile (G2). From a Ragozin perspective, he is not as fast as Saudi Crown or White Abarrio. But as a still-developing colt, there is every reason to think the Pegasus could be a lifetime best performance. Thing is, that is still only as fast as Saudi Crown has shown he can be.

That all adds up to a preference to Saudi Crown at the expected prices.

The headline took a general “inside” approach versus specifically calling out Saudi Crown because another inside horse has a long-shot look in Mixto. The Breeders’ Cup was a tall order for him off the Pacific Classic (G1) upset, but that win definitely can be a factor here.

White Abarrio looks to be overbet. He’s a known name, and his best certainly has a good chance of winning this. But it’s fair to wonder whether we’ll ever see his best again. That’s not to say he will run poorly, but his most likely performance here is not worthy of second choice.

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan always merits a mention because that’s a resume that always garners attention. If you’re a believer I guess 8-1 morning line isn’t terrible, but I can’t buy the talk of the Malibu (G1) being only a prep when the result was that poor. Certainly he’s better than that, but he’s never been good enough to win this if half the field runs back to their last races.