With strong winds forecast, the third round of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am could make for some of the best viewing of the year – providing, of course, that play is allowed to continue. The tournament began in perfect conditions, became a bit tougher on Friday, and will be a serious challenge if we hit that sweet spot where the world’s best are tasked with finding a way through it all.

It’s a shame that we’ve a two-tee start, which just seems the accepted standard on the PGA Tour these days, and in fact I wonder whether the weather might help protect the leaders. Were low scores out there today, the strength and depth among those around the eight-under mark – the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa all lurk there – would surely have resulted in significant changes at the top, but now I’m not convinced.

Certainly, as former winners of the Honda Classic both Sepp Straka and Russell Henley have the games required for a windy day. Straka of course also has an Open Championship runner-up finish to his name, while up there too are fellow Open contenders Tom Kim and Tony Finau, plus Sydney-born Cam Davis and, in Andrew Novak, someone who recently contended for a lesser event also made tougher by the breeze.

Austin Eckroat (T4) is by the way another Honda Classic winner and Justin Rose has done it right here at Pebble Beach, so while the top eight were all on offer at 50/1 and bigger pre-tournament, suddenly, in these conditions, they look quite strong. As for which of them I’d want to be siding with at this stage, the answer is not Straka, but I’m not sure who. Henley, Davis and Rose would just about make up my shortlist.

The overall message though is to proceed with caution and I’ll sit back and hope Cantlay and Morikawa move closer to the leader. Cantlay’s second round was a rather miserable watch as he finally clicked with his irons but holed nothing. Morikawa meanwhile has the final eight holes of round one to blame and has looked as good as anyone across the other 28 played so far. Perhaps they’ll both make a bit of a move today.

For three-ball bets, DENNY MCCARTHY stands out as the pick but I’m going to stick to a small-stakes double rather than get too heavily involved in singles given the uncertainty the forecast brings.

McCarthy has putted terribly so far and immediately that gives us headroom as he’s the best putter in this field. He also boasts a fine record in the event which is largely built on a level of comfort at Pebble Beach, where he’s gained about a stroke per round on average.

Justin Lower, by contrast, was about five worse than that prior to Thursday’s decent effort, which was still short of the average score on an easy day. Over the two rounds played so far he ranks among the worst ball-strikers in the field, particularly off the tee, one area where McCarthy tends to do well around this specific golf course and has done so far.

Seamus Power is a bigger threat and he too has some putting upside having been quiet to this point, but I’d much rather back McCarthy to find the key. In what I think is almost a head-to-head both men are arguably overpriced, but it’s McCarthy who is preferred.

Max Homa’s long-game has been a bit of a mess again but I can’t split Brian Harman and Kevin Yu. In theory it’d make sense to side with the Open champion in the conditions, but Yu is such a quality ball-striker than he may well cope better than most.

Instead I’ll take a chance on NICK TAYLOR, a former winner of this tournament who added to his tally in Hawaii last month and is now a five-time PGA Tour champion.

Taylor is a big price because he’s in with Justin Thomas, but Thomas was poor on Friday until a long putt at the 16th and a holed bunker shot at then 18th. Notably, he was one of the very worst ball-strikers, both his driving and approach play outside the top 60 in a field of fewer than 80 players.

With Thomas’s putter always prone to a bad day and the wind a potential leveller, he looks a vulnerable favourite and I’d rather side with Taylor than Jhonattan Vegas. They rank T8 and 77th respectively in strokes-gained at Pebble Beach and Taylor’s tidy game is better suited to the course than the more powerful one of Vegas.

Given that more missed greens are almost a certainty in the weather, Taylor’s reliable short-game makes him an appealing option at 2/1 and bigger, with the double paying about 6/1. That’ll do for a small bet on an unpredictable day.

Posted at 0840 GMT on 01/02/25

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