The Miami Dolphins (1-3) will try to get back on track in Week 5 when they face the New England Patriots (1-3) on Sunday afternoon. Miami continues to play without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), shuffling through multiple QBs during its three-game losing skid. New England is also looking for a spark as it tries to snap a three-game losing streak of its own. The Patriots are coming off back-to-back blowout road losses against the Jets and 49ers, but they are now returning home for two games. 

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Miami is favored by 1.5 points in the latest Patriots vs. Dolphins odds, while the over/under is 36 points via SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Dolphins vs. Patriots picks, you’ll want to see the NFL predictions from them advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model has set its sights on Miami vs. New England. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under:

• Patriots vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins -1.5
• Patriots vs. Dolphins over/under: 36 points
• Patriots vs. Dolphins money line: Miami -125, New England +105
• Patriots vs. Dolphins picks: See picks here
• Patriots vs. Dolphins streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Patriots can cover

While New England is not in an ideal situation under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo, there are still more positives for the Patriots than the Dolphins. Miami has failed to cover the spread in all four of its games, extending its winless ATS streak to seven games dating back to last season. The Dolphins have lost six of their last seven games outright, and they are the first team to not hold a lead through the first four games of the campaign since the 2017 Cleveland Browns.

Miami’s defense has allowed more than 25 points per game, making this an ideal matchup for a struggling New England offense. Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett has 536 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception, while running back Rhamondre Stevenson has 267 rushing yards and two scores. This is shaping up to be an ugly game, but New England should be the more motivated squad. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Dolphins can cover

Miami entered the season fresh off an 11-win campaign and back-to-back playoff appearances, but its chances took a hit when Tagovailoa suffered another concussion in Week 2. The Dolphins have gone through multiple quarterbacks since then, with Tyler Huntley starting on Monday night. Huntley started nine games across four seasons with the Ravens, so he has experience in this position. 

Having a full game of experience under his belt with Miami will give him a better chance to succeed this week. He has some of the most explosive wide receivers in the league at his disposal in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, while De’Von Achane is a versatile running back. The Dolphins have won six of their last seven games against the Patriots, covering the spread in all of those contests. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Patriots vs. Dolphins picks

The model has simulated Dolphins vs. Patriots 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins New England vs. Miami on Sunday, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Patriots spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 188-131 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.