As a result of New York’s victory and New England’s lopsided loss to the Chargers on Saturday, both teams sit at the bottom of the NFL standings alongside the Titans with identical 3-13 records, as of Sunday afternoon. 

But as noted by Tankathon, New England is still projected to pick No. 1 over New York and Tennessee because of their weak strength of schedule (.465) — which serves as the tie-breaker for identical records. 

Unlike QB-needy teams like the Titans, Giants, Raiders, Browns, and Jets, the Patriots won’t have a need for blue-chip signal-callers like Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders or Miami’s Cam Ward. 

As such, the Patriots do have some significant leverage in the upcoming draft if they want to trade down for whichever team is willing to pay a king’s ransom for the No. 1 pick. 

The last time a No. 1 pick was traded, the Panthers handed the Chicago Bears the No. 9 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the 61st pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, their first and second-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, and wide receiver DJ Moore in exchange for the top pick (used to take QB Bryce Young out of Alabama).

New England could conceivably still select a top-10 prospect (and plenty of draft capital) by trading down, or could still have their pick between top-five prospects like WR/CB Travis Hunter, pass-rusher Abdul Carter, and much more.  

The Patriots’ perch atop the NFL Draft leaderboard is far from a guarantee, however. New England will not officially clinch the No. 1 pick unless it loses to the Buffalo Bills in its season finale next week at Gillette Stadium. 

While the Bills would normally be heavily favored in that matchup, Buffalo might be tempted to primarily play their backups in Week 18 — especially after they already clinched the No. 2 seed in AFC following Sunday’s win over the Jets. 

If the Patriots do opt to play Drake Maye and the rest of their starters, they run the risk of closing out the year with a win — and spoiling their shot at locking into that No. 1 pick. 

The last time New England picked No. 1 overall was back in 1993, when New England selected QB Drew Bledsoe out of Washington State.

 

Conor Ryan is a staff writer covering the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox for Boston.com, a role he has held since 2023.