Usually, NFL Defensive Player of the Year is determined to some extent by sacks. That’s the stat that gets the voters’ attention.

Patrick Surtain II has been so good at cornerback for the Denver Broncos, he might be tough to deny for the award.

The betting market has shifted to Surtain. Surtain has taken over as the favorite for DPOY at BetMGM, and it’s a pretty large lead over T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Surtain has been a superstar for a Broncos defense that is one win from a playoff berth. It’s not unprecedented, but it’s rare for a cornerback to win Defensive Player of the Year. Given Surtain’s fantastic play over the course of the season, he’d be a great pick for the award, even though he doesn’t have any sacks.

Patrick Surtain II is new DPOY favorite

Watt has been the favorite most of the second half of the season, but that has changed. And now Surtain has a big lead.

Surtain is -210 to win the award for the top defensive player in the NFL at BetMGM. Watt is second at +175. No other player is shorter than 18-to-1, making it a two-man race with Denver’s star corner having a clear lead.

The argument for Surtain is pretty easy: He shuts down just about everyone he faces. Despite traveling with most teams’ No. 1 receivers, Surtain has allowed 33 catches for 279 yards all season, according to Next Gen Stats. The passer rating for opposing quarterbacks when he is targeted is 56. The worst passer rating of any quarterback this season with more than 200 attempts is Anthony Richardson at 61.6. That mean when QBs target Surtain, they basically turn into the worst passer in the NFL based on his rating allowed in coverage.

Here’s another metric that shows Surtain’s dominance: In Next Gen Stats’ coverage EPA (expected points added), Surtain’s mark is -25.6 in coverage. That’s the best among all cornerbacks with at least 400 coverage stats. For those who like Pro Football Focus, Surtain is its highest-graded cornerback in the NFL this season.

Award winners often need a signature highlight, and Surtain had a huge play this season. In Week 5 the Broncos trailed the Las Vegas Raiders 10-3, and the Raiders were driving when Surtain had a 100-yard pick-6.

All season Surtain has been a stalwart and the best player on a team that is 9-7 and needs one more win to secure a playoff spot. He might get a major award to prove his excellence, and it would be deserved.

Surtain would be 7th corner to win

It’s hard for a cornerback to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. If a cornerback is having an excellent season, it usually means he’s spending most of the game not getting thrown at. It’s hard to quantify that, though it is getting better through advanced stats.

Usually pass rushers win. Another Broncos cornerback, Champ Bailey, had a nearly perfect 2006 season but lost DPOY to Jason Taylor, who had 13.5 sacks. That’s one example of corners being slighted. There have been six cornerbacks to win it, however. The most recent was Stephon Gilmore in 2019. Mel Blount (1975), Lester Hayes (1980), Rod Woodson (1993), Deion Sanders (1994) and Charles Woodson (2009) were the others.

The movement toward Surtain got a push last week. He guarded Cincinnati Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who is on pace to win the NFL’s receiving triple crown, on 43 of 56 coverage snaps. Chase had just three catches for 27 yards when covered by Surtain, via ESPN’s Benjamin Solak. Surtain didn’t have an interception or a splash play, but that’s the kind of great performance that should be rewarded.

Watt is a great player and has had another great season. But Surtain’s dominance is worthy of the NFL’s top defensive award.