Our NFL experts make their Super Bowl anytime TD picks: What you need to know

Posted by author February 9, 2025 NFL

Spread the love

The stage is set for the 2025 Super Bowl, which will kick off today when the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles meet.

Super Bowl 59 will be a rematch of the big game from two years ago. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts squared off in Super Bowl 57 where Kansas City celebrated in the confetti after a 38-35 victory.

The game script is one of the first things to consider when betting on touchdowns. If you handicap a team to blow the other side out, you can expect running backs to get plenty of work for the winning side and receivers for the losing side as they throw more to try to catch up.

In the case of Super Bowl 59, the point spread suggests a close battle so finding the correct players to score a touchdown on Sunday becomes a bit more tricky.

Saquon Barkley is heavily favored to score in the game with -200 odds, which doesn’t provide much value. However, there are some other names worth considering to find paydirt.

As the world is ready for Super Bowl 59, the USA TODAY Sports staff sits at the table and provides the top touchdown picks for the game. What players will find the end zone and make a difference on the scoreboard?

Super Bowl anytime TD picks

Eagles TE, Dallas Goedert (+333)

Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: I’m not sure there will be a lot of touchdowns scored in Super Bowl 59, but if I’m backing anyone in this spot, it’s one of the tight ends. Rolling with Goedert against a Kansas City defense that is weak against tight ends seems like a solid gamble.

The Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards (1,191) and second-most receptions (106) to tight ends during the 2024 season. They ranked middle-of-the-pack in touchdowns surrendered (5), but the Eagles figure to look Goedert’s way early and often to spark the team’s passing offense.

Goedert has never been a big-time touchdown threat during his NFL career, but he has averaged six targets and 62.7 yards per game during the postseason while scoring once. His productivity and favorable matchup make him one of the best plus-money touchdown scorers to back in this spot.

Chiefs TE, Noah Gray (+500)

Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: Despite their impressive defense, the Eagles have been shredded by tight ends in the last two games. After holding the Packers in check during the wild-card round, Philly watched Tyler Higbee go off by hauling in 7-of-10 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. Colby Parkinson added two catches for nine yards and a score as well.

Then Zach Ertz made his presence known in the NFC championship game, collecting 11-of-16 targets for 104 yards, with his backups adding three catches for 34 yards. While all eyes are on Travis Kelce in the Super Bowl, Gray has sneakily scored more this season, becoming a trusted weapon for Patrick Mahomes. He’s been quiet in the playoffs so far, but that isn’t scaring us off.

And the big game typically lends itself to some scores from long shots when the Chiefs are involved. Here are the Chiefs’ touchdown scorers in the last two Super Bowls: Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce. Not exactly household names for the most part, right?

The Super Bowl is all about unlikely heroes rising to the occasion. Let’s take a shot on Gray to deliver us some green.

Chiefs RB, Samaje Perine (+1000)

Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: This is quite a long shot but it could pay off. Perine hasn’t played a big role in the playoffs as both Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have taken on the rushing load for the Kansas City offense.

But this is more about Perine’s skill set as a receiver than as a rusher out of the backfield. Perine led the Chiefs’ running backs in receptions during the regular season with 28 on 35 targets. In the AFC championship game, Perine had the game-sealing 17-yard reception to close out against the Bills.

The Eagles defense offers a tougher challenge in the running game for the Kansas City offense than the Bills did in the AFC championship. That may force the Chiefs to rely on short passes, offering Perine opportunity out of the backfield as a receiver.

Philadelphia will be without starting linebacker Nakobe Dean in the Super Bowl and Oren Burks will start in his place. First-team All-Pro linebacker Zack Baun may be assigned to cover Kelce more often than not, leaving Burks to potentially shadow Perine in man coverage or in the flat. That may be a weakness the Chiefs offense looks to exploit to Perine’s benefit as a receiver.

Eagles QB, Jalen Hurts (-115)

Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: If you believe in momentum, the Eagles have that coming into the Super Bowl. Philadelphia has averaged the fourth-best offensive EPA per play if we exclude all teams from Week 18 where many starters rested. The side I like to win today is the Eagles.

Hurts has been the gift that keeps on giving, and I expect that trend to continue. Although his odds are not the juicy plus-money odds I typically look for, he is the only player below even money worth paying a few extra cents.

The Eagles quarterback rushed for three touchdowns in the NFC championship game and has at least one rushing score in 12 of his 17 healthy games including the playoffs. According to ESPN, Hurts had a league-high expected touchdown total of 14.5. He trailed only Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs in carries inside the 5-yard line. With the Chiefs defense expected to deploy plenty of attention to Barkley, Hurts can take advantage of this if the Chiefs linebackers don’t account for him on option runs. Let’s not forget the Eagles’ patented “tush push.”

Hurts scored three touchdowns in Super Bowl 57 against Kansas City. I expect the “Brotherly Shove” to help him find his way to paydirt at least once on Sunday.