Oregon vs. Oregon State picks, predictions, 2024 college football projections for Week 3

Posted by Admin September 11, 2024 Football

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One of college football’s great rivalry games gets pushed up to the start of the season after usually having been played later in the year, with No. 9 Oregon and Oregon State facing off on Saturday in the annual Civil War game.

Oregon started the season as the No. 3 team in the AP top 25 rankings, but two close results have voters pushing the Ducks down in the polls as they won those two games against Idaho and Boise State by a combined 13 points, a far-closer margin than was anticipated.

Compared to Oregon allowing 48 points so far this year, Oregon State has allowed just 15 against Idaho State and San Diego State, ranking 5th nationally in rushing, but just 110th in passing.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer projection model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the models are favoring the road team in this matchup, as Oregon is projected to win the game in 68.6 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

Conversely, the Beavers come out as the expected winner in 31.4 percent of the model’s projections.

The index projects that Oregon will be 7.4 points better than Oregon State on the same field, according to the models, not enough to cover the spread.

Oregon is a 16.5 point favorite against Oregon State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the totel at 50.5 points for the game.

Oregon is fourth among Big Ten teams with a 30.7 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff and is projected to win 8.7 games this season by the model, as a result of the team’s performance over the first two weeks.

The computers forecast Oregon State will win 8.1 games this season, with a strong 93.3 percent chance to play in a bowl game, with an 8.2 percent shot at the playoff.

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 12:30 p.m. Pacific
TV: Fox network

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses