The addition and instant impact of Jimmy Butler have taken the Warriors to the edge of insanity, with coach Steve Kerr and superstar Stephen Curry saying they’re aiming for the No. 6 seed, while Draymond Green says they’ll win the NBA Finals.

In Jimmy they trust. A lot.

Draymond’s declaration tosses a firebomb into logic, while the ambition expressed by Kerr and Curry is admirable but improbable.

But there is, health permitting, a path to the No. 6 seed. Getting there, however, requires the Warriors to break their worst, most self-harming tendency.

The Warriors move into the final third of the 2024-25 NBA season sitting in 10th place in the Western Conference, with a 28-27 record. If they win 20 of their final 27 regular-season games, they’ll finish 48-34, which usually is good enough to climb to sixth.

Only once in the past 10 seasons has a team in the West won 48 games and finished outside the top six. The San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers finished 48-34 in 2019 – before the institution of the NBA play-in tournament – and that earned them the seventh and eighth seeds, respectively. Both were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

The best records among sixth-place teams during this 10-year period belong to the 2023-24 Phoenix Suns and the 2018-19 Oklahoma City Thunder, both of whom finished 49-33. The Suns finished two games ahead of the seventh-place Los Angeles Lakers (47-35), and the Thunder finished one game ahead of the seventh-place Spurs (48-34).

The worst record of any sixth-place team belongs to the 2015-16 Dallas Mavericks, who finished 42-40. There was a clear division between the top two (Warriors 73-9, Spurs 67-15), the next two (Thunder 55-27, Clippers 53-29) and the next five, with the fifth-place Portland Trail Blazers finishing only four games ahead of the ninth-place Utah Jazz.

Golden State’s magic number for victories likely falls between 42 and 48. The latter is the much safer bet, particularly since the Warriors will be on the wrong side of most tiebreakers; they likely will be burned by their brutal season within the Pacific Division. They’re 1-10 with five games remaining, the first coming Friday night at the Sacramento Kings.

As the league returns Thursday from the NBA All-Star break, the Clippers are in sixth place in the West at 31-23. That pace projects to a 47-35 record, which is where OKC finished to earn sixth place in 2017.

More to the point, the Clippers only are 3.5 games ahead of the Warriors. So, again, there is a path. But there is no chance unless they reverse their season-long trend of losing games that, objectively, they should win.

Please understand the Warriors are 10th not because of injuries or cheating officials or bad luck or because the 3-point era wipes out leads. They’re 10th because they invited a pile of painful losses – aka games they should have won. Up 17 with 14 minutes left, lose at San Antonio. Up 18 with 17 minutes left at Chase Center, lose to the Nets.

Allow 46 points in the first quarter at home to Dallas. Lose by 16 to a Miami Heat team coming off a double-overtime game in Sacramento the previous night. Up 11 on the Jazz, allowing 20 points over the final three minutes at Utah.

That’s five painful losses – not counting Chris Boucher dropping them with a 17-point fourth quarter, or Lakers guard Austin Reaves strolling in for a game-winning layup with 1.7 seconds remaining on Christmas Day at Chase Center.

Can the Warriors over their final 27 games, with Butler, find a remedy for the pain they brought unto themselves?

We separate Golden State’s remaining schedule into three categories: 1) Great win; 2) Good win; 3) Painful loss.

Great win (nine)

Feb. 21 at Sacramento; Feb. 23 vs. Dallas; March 4 at New York; March 17 vs. Denver; March 18 vs. Milwaukee; April 1 at Memphis; April 3 at Los Angeles Lakers; April 4 vs. Denver; April 8 at Phoenix.

Good win (seven)

Feb. 27 at Orlando; March 1 at Philadelphia; March 15 vs. New York; March 30 at San Antonio; April 6 vs. Houston; April 9 vs. San Antonio; April 13 at LA Clippers.

Painful loss (11)

Feb. 25 vs. Charlotte; March 3 at Charlotte; March 6 at Brooklyn; March 8 vs. Detroit; March 10 vs. Portland; March 13 vs. Sacramento; March 10 vs. Toronto; March 22 at Atlanta; March 25 at Miami; March 28 at New Orleans; April 11 at Portland.

Golden State cannot afford any more “painful” losses – unless they offset them with two great wins. Six “great” wins, five “good” wins and avoiding nine painful losses is one imaginable way to reach 20 wins and, therefore, 48 for the season.

If Butler indeed is the difference, the Warriors will find 20 or so wins needed to finish in the top six of a clogged conference.

In which case Curry and Kerr will have reached their goal, and Draymond’s Feb. 16 All-Star break boast won’t be as preposterous on April 16.

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