Olympic Games

• Roland Garros, Paris, France (outdoor clay)

Carlos Alcaraz triumphed at the French Open just a matter of weeks ago and now he is odds-on to win another prize at Roland Garros.

This time it’s an Olympic gold medal at stake at the famous Grand Slam venue in the south-west of Paris and victory for the Spaniard would complete a remarkable treble – last time out he was crowned Wimbledon champion.

Already heading the market due to his fine form, Alcaraz went odds-on following the withdrawal of world number one Jannik Sinner (tonsilitis) earlier this week but punters should beware that favourites have an awful record in the Olympics.

I’ve haven’t got the historical prices I front of me as I write but I’m not sure the jolly has ever won the men’s singles since tennis returned to the Games in 1988.

Maybe Rafael Nadal was the market leader when winning in Beijing in 2008, although I suspect Roger Federer was a marginal favourite, while Andy Murray was probably just behind Novak Djokovic in the betting for Rio 2016.

Three years ago, in Tokyo, Djokovic went off at 8/13 but failed to medal, losing to eventual champion Alex Zverev in the semi-finals.

Other surprise winners down the years include Nicolas Massu, Marc Rosset and Miroslav Mecir.

That’s not to say we should immediately write Alcaraz off, of course not, but there are other factors that suggest 4/5 isn’t a great price.

There are two notable differences from Alcaraz’s win here less than two months ago.

Perhaps most importantly, they are only playing best-of-three tie-break sets this week which gives the underdogs a greater chance. Play top level for 90 minutes and you could well deliver a knockout blow – and there aren’t many bad players in this field.

In terms of Alcaraz, it’s worth remembering that he was two sets to one down to both Sinner and Zverev at the French Open – he wasn’t at his best in either match but still emerged from them – while three times during his Wimbledon run he lost the first set.

Secondly, it’s going to be considerably hotter for the Olympics than it was at the French Open. Temperatures are forecast to go into the 30s during the tournament; it barely hit 20C during Alcaraz’s last Paris outing.

That should make the claycourts play a bit faster which has to give the power players a bit more of a chance.

Perhaps the aforementioned Djokovic can take advantage.

He’s the top seed following Sinner’s withdrawal and this is the one prize in tennis which, so far, has remained out of reach for a player now considered by most as the greatest of all time.

The Serb has lost in the semis three times in his four previous Olympics and will be determined to use that pain as motivation here – I’m sure this has been a major goal for some time. It’s also noteworthy that he’s opted not to stay in the athletes’ village, keeping his hotel routine.

But determination will only get you so far and it’s hard to feel this event is coming at the right time for Djokovic.

Even putting his insanely high standards to one side, this has been a poor season for the 37-year-old, who arrives in Paris yet to win a title in 2024.

We did see an uptick at Wimbledon where, just weeks after undergoing knee surgery, he made the final. However, the draw was particularly kind and when faced with the step up in class for the final with Alcaraz, he was very much found wanting.

Essentially, I’m not keen on either of the top two at the prices and I’m also prepared to look past Nadal, playing in his final Olympics.

He’ll be delighted the Games are in Paris this year, allowing him to return to the scene of his 14 French Open successes.

But, like Djokovic, we’ve not seen the best Rafa this season. Injuries have taken their toll and while he does seem fit at present, the form just hasn’t returned after a year away from the match court.

Now 38, Nadal skipped the grasscourt season in favour of staying on clay to practise for this event.

He played a warm-up tournament in Bastad last week and made the final but was well beaten in it by Nuno Borges and afterwards said he was disappointed with the way he’d played all week. “Much better in training,” was his verdict.

If true, perhaps he will be able to mount something of challenge back at his tennis cathedral but the draw hasn’t been kind – he’ll likely face Djokovic in round two should he beat Marton Fucsovics in his opener.

I much prefer to back two players with good Roland Garros records a bit further down the market.

First, ALEX ZVEREV holds strong claims.

The defending champion has gone RU-SF-SF-SF in his last four visits to Roland Garros and he was just a set away from the title here in June.

He prepared for this tournament by reaching the final of the Hamburg Open and while he lost that in a final-set tie-break to Arthur Fils, he’ll still be wondering how that happened given he created 22 break-point chances and took only one. That’s pretty freakish.

I feel the faster conditions should aid Zverev’s game.

His serve has been in fine working order all season, the days of numerous double faults long gone. In terms of service games won, Zverev is third on the ATP Tour this season, while filter things down to clay events and he’s got he best such record in this field.

Zverev looks well drawn having landed in the second quarter where the next-highest seed is Taylor Fritz.

Nicolas Jarry could be awkward in round three but the German looks to have a decent path to the semis laid out before him.

At 6/1, he looks worth backing.

The other genuine contender I feel is overpriced is CASPER RUUD.

I don’t really understand why he’s now a 16/1 shot when he was sent off at 12s for the French Open, an event which had all of the top 10 present. Only six of the current top 10 will be in attendance on this occasion, with Sinner a significant absentee.

OK, Ruud did lose early at last week’s Swedish Open but is one bad result really enough to swing things that much?

Ruud enjoyed an excellent claycourt swing in the spring, making the final in Monte Carlo, winning in Barcelona and Geneva and then making the semis at this venue where illness clearly got the better of him when he faced Zverev.

The Norwegian is in a weak-looking third quarter, one featuring Daniil Medvedev.

My main concern here is Francisco Cerundolo, who is 2-1 up on Ruud on clay. The pair could meet in the last 16.

I had been tempted to back the Argentine, but his price has tumbled from 250/1 to 80/1 in the last few days. He’s also still playing in Umag at time of writing so won’t have long to prepare – if he makes the final on Saturday, he’ll have to make the dash to Paris to play on Sunday. Far from ideal.

I’m therefore happy to back Ruud at 16s.

Finally, I can’t resist taking one at big odds considering the history of tennis at the Olympics.

As we’ve seen in Davis Cup over the years, playing for your nation can draw something extra out of a player.

It certainly did with Massu at Athens 2004, his gold medal going down as one of Chile’s greatest sporting moments.

Fernando Gonzalez won bronze that year – and silver in Beijing – so the nation has a strong history in this tournament.

One of their current stars is ALEJANDRO TABILO and I can’t help but feel he’s too big at 200/1.

This is a player who is seeded, one who claimed his first ATP title in Auckland. He then made the final on clay in Santiago and, perhaps most impressively, reached the semis of the Rome Masters, brushing Djokovic aside along the way.

If there’s player in Alcaraz’s section of the draw capable of hitting the heights needed to take him down, then it could well be Tabilo – the pair are on course to meet in the last 16.

Such odds look disrespectful to me and worth a small punt.

Previous results from the men’s singles at the Olympic Games

• 2020 – 1 Zverev, 2 Khachanov, 3 Carreno Busta, 4 Djokovic
• 2016 – 1 Murray, 2 Del Potro, 3 Nishikori, 4 Nadal
• 2012 – 1 Murray*, 2 Federer, 3 Del Potro, 4 Djokovic
• 2008 – 1 Nadal, 2 Gonzalez, 3 Djokovic, 4 Blake
• 2004 – 1 Massu, 2 Fish, 3 Gonzalez, 4 Dent
• 2000 – 1 Kafelnikov, 2 Haas, 3 Di Pasquale, 4 Federer
• 1996 – 1 Agassi*, 2 Bruguera, 3 Paes, 4 Meligeni
• 1992 – 1 Rosset, 2 Arrese*, 3= Cherkasov & Ivanisevic
• 1988 – 1 Mecir, 2 Mayotte, 3= Gilbert & Edberg

Asterisk indicates player from host nation

Posted at 2015 BST on 25/07/24

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