Everything is on the line as Notre Dame and Ohio State face off in the College Football Playoff National Championship. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Ohio State looks like the most dominant team in the College Football Playoff, beating its three postseason opponents up to now by an average of 20 points each time out.

A two-touchdown victory against Texas in the semifinal round was the Buckeyes’ closest playoff outing after beating Tennessee by 25 and Big Ten champ Oregon by 20 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal game.

Ohio State made history a decade ago by winning the first CFP national title, and could do so again with a victory in the first championship bout decided by the sport’s first 12-team format.

Notre Dame was all but talked out of the College Football Playoff by analysts after a surprise loss to Northern Illinois at home back in September.

But the Irish rebounded, winning 13 straight games to this point behind one of the country’s most productive defensive units and one of the sport’s most productive ground attacks.

That combination has the Golden Domers in position to win its first national championship since the 1988 season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

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As expected, the model is siding with the Buckeyes over the Fighting Irish, but by a very narrow margin that shows this matchup could go either way.

Ohio State is the close favorite in the contest according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 55.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

And while Notre Dame wasn’t projected to win outright, it did come out on top in a strong minority 44.6 percent of the remaining sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 11,080 of the index’s calculations, while the Fighting Irish edged out Ohio State in the other 8,920 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? 

Reflecting how close these teams were in the projections, the computer expects them to play what appears to be a very close game.

When taking an average of the 20,000 simulations, Ohio State is projected to be just 1.9 points better than Notre Dame on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Fighting Irish.

That’s because Ohio State is a big 8.5 point favorite against Notre Dame, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -106, Under -114).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -375 and for Notre Dame at +290 to win outright.

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A plurality of bets are expecting the Fighting Irish to make this more competitive against the Buckeyes, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 64 percent of bets to either upset Ohio State and win the national championship, or keep the game under 9 points in a loss.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the title and cover the big spread.

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Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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When: Mon., Jan. 20
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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