The S&P/ASX 200 lifted 0.3 per cent, or by 27.50 points, to close at 8268.20 on Thursday.

The sharemarket rose off the back of price jumps in companies reporting strong results including Qantas (up 5.6 per cent to $9.39), Coles (up 3.5 per cent to $20.38) and Medibank Private (up 10 per cent to $4.42).

Qantas reported an 11 per cent increase in half year profit before tax to $1.39 billion, and elected to return money to shareholders via a special dividend rather than increasing its buyback program.

Qantas’s results came as Treasurer Jim Chalmers approved Qatar Airways’ 25 per cent stake in Virgin Australia.

While Coles revealed a 3 per cent fall in half-year profit, the company received a major boost from its supermarket division, which recorded a 7 per cent increase in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) to $1.08 billion.

Medibank posted a 6.1 per cent increase in revenue to $4.3 billion and a 13.8 per cent jump in underlying net profit to $298.7 million.

The company lifted its fully franked interim dividend by 8.3 per cent to 7.8 cents per share.

In the US, Nvidia released fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations, including record revenue of $US39.3 billion ($62.3 billion).

ASIC chairman Joe Longo says diversity in boardrooms is “really important”, but board composition also requires diversity of intellect.

US president Donald Trump recently issued an executive order for US companies to scrap diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies, causing some global firms to ditch them.

In response to Senate estimates questions from Greens Senator Barbara Pocock about the issue, Mr Longo said, “ASIC certainly supports diversity on boards”.

“It’s an area which seems to attract controversy in recent times, but as a general matter… absolutely diversity on boards is really important and ASIC encourages diversity,” he said.

Mr Longo said the corporate watchdog supports diversity “in its broadest sense”, noting boards are best served by different opinions.

He said the situation where global companies such as Accenture were rolling back DEI polices was unfortunate, and it would be interesting to watch what unfolds in Australia over the next six to 12 months.

There have recently been calls for Australia to shift the dial by introducing mandatory reporting for venture capital firms in Australia, similar to laws introduced in California in 2023.

ASIC chairman Joe Longo says the corporate watchdog is technology neutral about crypto.

The corporate regulator has repeatedly urged consumers to show a high degree of caution towards the cryptocurrency craze.

Speaking at Senate estimates on Thursday, Mr Longo, in response to questions from Senator Andrew Bragg, said part of his job was to call out activities that cause harm and crypto activities can cause significant consumer harm.

“All I’m saying to the market is be careful,” Mr Longo said.

He said even significant players like Blackrock CEO Larry Fink and others had become more cautious about crypto.

ASIC would keep an eye out on risks, Mr Longo said.

Administrator Grant Thornton says it has been unable to find a buyer for the Oceania Glass factory at Dandenong in outer Melbourne and will shut operations, with 56 jobs to go immediately.

Grant Thornton said there was the potential for a further 95 redundancies over the coming weeks as the glass manufacturing float line and production facility is wound down.

Oceania Glass was Australia’s only architectural glass manufacturer but has struggled because of cheap imports from China.

The administrator is working to see if it can sell the company’s national distribution business, with several buyers undertaking due diligence.

“We acknowledge this latest outcome is stressful for employees and their families and are providing support services to those affected,” according to Lisa Gibb, Joint and Several Voluntary Administrator from Grant Thornton.

Betashares investment strategist Hugh Lam notes that tech giant Nvidia’s Q4 earnings come at a shaky time for the AI industry, but that it’s well-placed to continue its meteoric Wall Street rise.

“Chinese startup DeepSeek released an AI model in late January which used cheaper, less advanced Nvidia H800 chips, raising fears that the ‘hyperscalers’ — companies like Google, Microsoft and Amazon — are spending too much on building data center capacity,” he said.

“However, these companies have actually raised their capital expenditure guidance with more than US$300 billion expected this year.

“This backdrop provides a healthy source of demand for Nvidia’s GPU pipeline.”

He noted the new Blackwell product’s supply-chain problems are over with this chip model generating US$11 billion of revenue from alone in the fourth quarter, which Nvidia described as “the fastest product ramp” in its history.

He also referred to chief executive Jensen Huang’s comments that that the “demand for Blackwell is (still) amazing”.

“The main concern on investors’ mind is undoubtedly whether DeepSeek would potentially reduce the need for Nvidia’s most powerful chips required for training AI models,” Mr Lam said.

“Ultimately, if more efficient models can be built at cheaper costs then this would incentivize development of AI-embedded software applications, stoking more demand for computing and Nvidia’s chips.

“The AI industry is still in its early stages — whilst there has been renewed interest in software companies that are able to monetise investments made in AI, data center infrastructure and advanced accelerator chips will remain an important part of the ecosystem.

“The ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies will continue to spearhead this development across the ‘hardware layer’ as the industry moves towards the collective goal of reaching AGI — artificial general intelligence.”

AMP economist My Bui notes that business investment in Australia has basically flatlined, increasing just 0.6 per cent since December 2023 with uneven performance across sectors.

Data centre investments have been “very robust”, which drove a 35 per cent year-on-year increase in the information, media and telecom industry (see the red line below).

Meanwhile, mining investments have weakened in recent quarters, declining 5.8 per cent versus a year ago.

She said notable pullbacks in capex are the construction, wholesale trade, accommodation and food, as well as rental and real estate industries, which “reflected a soft economic backdrop and especially a weaker household sector in 2024”.

She says that overall, private business investment growth has followed the consumer sector and posted rather sluggish results throughout the past year.

“While there are some upsides from here, indicated by small upticks in forward orders in the PMI and NAB business surveys, business sentiment has failed to lift meaningfully beyond the neutral level, which likely translated into some cautiousness in spending plans,” she said.

She expects the next set of GDP data for Australia will also likely be soft, “albeit with some minor improvement from the middle of last year”.

“We continue to see a 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1 per cent year-on-year lift in GDP which is still among the lowest readings since the 90s outside of the pandemic,” she said.

New capital expenditure (capex) fell 0.2 per cent in December quarter 2024, but it was still 0.6 per cent higher than December quarter 2023, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows.

Business investment fell 0.6 per cent in the mining industry, with non-mining industries down 0.1 per cent.

New equipment and machinery fell 0.8 per cent driven by a 1.0 per cent fall in non-mining equipment. This was partially offset by a 0.6 per cent rise in mining equipment.

Construction drove the drop in equipment and machinery capex, down 8.1 per cent.

“The fall came mainly from businesses in the trade sector that had reduced investment on light trucks, utes, and machinery,” ABS head of business statistics Robert Ewing said.

He noted strong investment in data centres by the information media and telecommunications industry — up 22.3 per cent — which offset the overall fall in equipment and machinery.

Capex was up 0.2 per cent for buildings and structures, with the non-mining industries rising 1.1 per cent. This was partly offset by a fall in mining of 1.1 per cent.

“Electricity, gas, water and waste services rose 8.9 per cent for buildings and structures with a ramp up of investment on electricity transmission and generation as well as ongoing spending on renewable projects,” Mr Ewing said.

“This rise was offset by a fall in mining industry spending on buildings and structures. The 1.1 per cent drop reflected less spend by lithium miners.”

Figures released today also include updated expectations of planned capex for the financial year. Businesses revised up their expected capex spend by 3.2 per cent (in current prices) since the last estimate three months ago.

Remember in 2023 when Transport Minister Catherine King blocked Qatar Airways from adding extra flights to Australia, citing the “national interest”.

Well now both she and the treasurer think it is in the national interest.

On Thursday, Jim Chalmers approved Qatar Airways’ 25 per cent stake in Virgin Australia and was selling its benefits to Australians.

He said the investment would be conditional on maintaining Australian representation on Virgin’s board and protection of its customer data, but that it was “expected to strengthen competition in the aviation sector”.

Read more about the deal here and why so many people think it could bring down the prices of airfares for Aussie travellers.

Home prices in Australia will rise less quickly this year than previously thought, with only modest support from further interest rate cuts, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts.

A shortage of new homes, together with a stretched price-to-income ratio after a more than 40% jump in prices over the past five years, is expected to keep many aspiring first-time homeowners out of the market.

The RBA cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% in February, its first cut in four years, and is expected to cut twice more this year but analysts said such cuts would not ease fundamental affordability pressures.

The February 17-26 Reuters survey of 16 real estate analysts predicted home prices would rise 3.7% this year, less than a November poll forecast, following a 5.0% rise last year and 8.0% in 2023.

Analysts forecast roughly 5% rises in 2026 and 2027.

“You have to be middle-aged and above-average earning to enter the housing market,” said Johnathan McMenamin at Barrenjoey, adding that home ownership in Australia remained “a luxury”

The average asking price of an Australian property was $814,293 in February, according to CoreLogic, nearly eight times the average annual income and nearly 12 times for a property in Sydney, last averaging $1,193,228.

“In the short-term, borrowing capacity and affordability is a real constraint on how fast house price growth can rebound, even with an RBA easing cycle underway,” McMenamin added.

House prices in the mid-sized capital cities of Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, which rose 10-20% last year, were expected to climb 5.0-8.0% in 2025. Home prices in Sydney and Melbourne were forecast to rise 3.0%.

Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro has commented on the latest results out from Nvidia and Qantas. 

Nvidia

Gilbert says Nvidia’s results have reassured investors and  the ramping up of Blackwell production delivering US$11 billion of revenue in Q4 has quashed “worries over supply, which has been a grey cloud over the stock in recent quarters”.

“The positivity around Blackwell saw a bullish revenue forecast for the next quarter, signalling US$43 billion in revenue, above forecasts.”

“If there was a spot of weakness to take away from the result, it was the margin guidance for the next quarter. Its margins are being squeezed at a time when the business is bringing new, more complex products to market.

“However, this is because the AI opportunity is expanding with huge tailwinds across a host of sectors. The shift of industries to digitisation, with AI front and centre, means Nvidia will need to continue innovating.”

Qantas

The standout from Qantas’s results, Gilbert says, is Jetstar.

” … which is proving to be an important cog in Qantas’ wheel amid the cost of living crisis, delivering a 54% increase in domestic earnings from a year ago, while passenger count hit a record high.”

Qantas is pushing net debt higher, he says, as capital expenditure grows and its fleet ages.

“The increased spend is, quite simply, a necessity.”

When it comes to the Qatar-Virgin deal, Gilbert says it shows Virgin “is becoming a more formidable competitor, and if Qantas is not careful, it could take some market share”.

Union membership in Australia has grown by nearly 200,000 members from 2022 to 2024, a 12.5% increase — the largest jump since the ABS began collecting the data.

The rise has been driven by young workers, with membership among 15-24-year-olds up 53% and 25-34-year-olds up 22%, shifting the median union member’s age from 46 to 44.

Union density has increased from 12.5% to 13.1%, outpacing general employment growth (7.7%).

Membership gains span both public and private sectors, with notable growth in health care (+2.8%) and construction (+2%).

Technicians and trade workers (+2.2%) saw the largest occupational increase, while labourers (-2.1%) saw the biggest decline.

Women still make up the majority of union members (54.1%), though the gender gap has narrowed slightly.

ACTU Secretary Sally McManus says young workers are joining unions to secure better pay and conditions, with union members earning $251 more per week than non-members.

Jacob Falkencrone, global head of investment strategy at Saxo, has made some comments about Nvidia’s quarterly results. 

He says the company is “smashing revenue and profit expectations” after reporting revenue of US$39.3 billion, up 78% from a year ago.

Despite these stellar numbers, Nvidia’s stock barely budged in after-hours trading. Why? Investors had hoped for an even bigger blowout, and there are growing concerns about profitability and competition in the AI space, Falkencrone said.

“Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in AI chips … Tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are continuing their AI arms race, snapping up Nvidia’s chips to power the next generation of artificial intelligence.

“But there are signs that competition is creeping in. The emergence of DeepSeek raised concerns about efficiency improvements in AI model training.

“If powerful AI models can be built with fewer high-performance GPUs, demand for Nvidia’s chips could cool off faster than expected.”

What’s next for Nvidia?

AI demand remains strong, but some analysts warn cloud giants like Microsoft and Google could slow AI hardware spending after an initial buying spree.

However, Nvidia still has major growth drivers ahead:

• AI adoption is still in its early days, with industries like healthcare and finance just beginning to harness its power.
• New product cycles, including Nvidia’s Rubin AI chips expected in 2026, could fuel another wave of demand.

The ASX 200 has opened higher this morning up +0.2% to 8,259 points.

The Aussie dollar and spot gold are both flat at 63.07 US cents and $2,917, respectively.

Bitcoin remains low, down -0.3% to US$84, 215.

The tech sector has opened in the red (-0.2%), despite strong results from AI giant Nvidia overseas.

Education is down a whopping -15.2% likely due to IDP Education reporting an -18% drop in revenue this morning and a -39% decline in net profit. 

Financials is down -0.5% and Energy slipped -0.3%.

All other sectors are in positive territory.

IDP Education is leading the bottom movers down -14.3% to $10.10. 

While Eagers Automotive is leading the top movers up +16.1% to $14.48.

Results, results, results, it’s a week for results!

And in case you missed Woolworths’ half-year results yesterday business reporter Rhiana Whitson has you covered:

Qantas CEO Vanessa Hudson is continuing a lengthy press conference on the company’s results.

One question from reporters was about how Qantas is reflecting on recent reputational damage.

Qantas has faced a series of scandals and controversies over the past couple of years, including the ACCC suing the airline for selling tickets on flights that had already been cancelled. 

The High Court also found that Qantas illegally sacked 1,700 ground staff in 2020 during the pandemic and outsourced their jobs.

“We are a leadership team focused on getting the balance right … and investing in our customers, building a culture that is inclusive and one where all of our people feel engaged and [have] a sense of belonging and continuing to get the balance right for our shareholders.” 

Qantas chief executive Vanessa Hudson held a press conference this morning in Melbourne on the company’s latest results.

She said the results were unpinned by a “continued strong appetite for demand” for both premium and low-cost travel”.

“The group carried over 28 million customers for the half, a growth of 10 per cent. Jetstar carried a record number of customers, enabling more Australians to travel for less.”

Ms Hudson drove home the message that Qantas was offering low-cost flights, managing to squeeze in that “one in three Jetstar customers travelled for less than $100” more than once.

When it came to the Qatar-Virgin deal, Ms Hudson said she welcomed the competition. 

“We said we weren’t going to oppose the result so from the outset that’s been our position and the outcome today was expected. Our focus is bout looking after our customers.”

She said the government’s guidance around the wet lease was “a balanced outcome”. 

Ms Hudson was also asked why Qantas had such a high flight cancellation rate.

“Weather plays a really big part, especially because Qantas flies the largest network. We are investing in our fleet … and we are going to be laser-focused going forward in making sure we avoid as many cancellations as possible.”

ICYMI the corporate regulator ASIC announced on Wednesday it was growing increasingly concerned about the growing investment in private markets over public markets.

ASIC chair Joe Longo spoke with chief business correspondent Ian Verrender about the issue and what it means on The Business last night: