The New Orleans Pelicans are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set against the visiting Denver Nuggets, and the home team will look to snap a six-game losing streak with a victory tonight.

My Nuggets vs. Pelicans predictions expect Nikola Jokic to help his team bounce back with a strong performance. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take a chance on Jokic’s plus-money combo prop.

Nuggets vs Pelicans prediction

My best bet
Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double (+200 at bet365)

My analysis
Nikola Jokic leads the NBA in triple-doubles with 10 in 22 appearances in 2024-25. That’s good for 45.5% of his games this season. The +200 odds on this prop offer an implied probability of 33.3%, which means we’re getting it at a great value based on his performance this season.

Jokic ranks third in the NBA all-time in triple-doubles at 140 through 697 games. That’s good for one every five games. Of his 140 triple-doubles, he’s recorded the most (10) against the New Orleans Pelicans, doing so in 29 career matchups. That includes eight of his last 10 in this head-to-head.

Jokic has recorded single-digit rebounds in two of his last three, but he’s in a great spot to turn things around on the glass. The Pelicans have allowed the most rebounds to centers this season at 17.38. Over the last seven, New Orleans has allowed opposing centers to grab 18.83 rebounds per game. In that span, the Pels have allowed centers to hand out the sixth-most assists.

New Orleans has been crushed by big men this season, and Jokic — who’s averaging 31 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 9.8 assists — should be able to record his 11th triple-double of the season. The Nuggets lost a tough one to Portland on Thursday, and I expect him to have a strong performance as he looks to get his team back on track.

Nuggets vs Pelicans same-game parlay

Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double

Pelicans +9.5

Tves Missi Over 9.5 rebounds

The Nuggets have been up-and-down all season, and it’s tough to pick them to win by double digits on the road, especially after they’ve suffered losses to the Blazers and Wizards in recent outings. New Orleans has been showing signs of improvement as they get healthier, and given how well they’ve played at home compared to how they’ve played on the road, I expect them to cover tonight. 

New Orleans’ rookie center has averaged 8.5 rebounds across 26.1 minutes per game this season. Over his last 12, he’s averaged 12.3 points and 10.7 rebounds across 29.9 minutes. In that span, Missi has grabbed double-digit boards eight times, a mark he’s reached in 12 games on the season overall.

Over the last seven games, the Nuggets have allowed the second-most rebounds to centers. Missi will need to play big minutes against Denver’s jumbo lineup featuring Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic, and I expect him to hit the Over on this prop.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nuggets vs Pelicans odds

Nuggets vs Pelicans live odds

Nuggets vs Pelicans opening odds

• Spread: Denver -10 | New Orleans +10
• Moneyline: Denver -450 | New Orleans +350
• Over/Under: Over 2323 | Under 232

Odds courtesy of bet365.

Nuggets vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis

• Denver has won and covered in three of four, bringing the team’s record to 14-11 straight up and 10-14-1 ATS.
• New Orleans has lost nine and covered in four of 10, and the Pels sit at 5-24 straight up and 10-19 ATS.
• The Nuggets have hit the Over in six of the last 10 and 16 of 25 games this season.
• The Pelicans have hit the Under in three of four, and the team is 13-15-1 to the Under through 29 games.

Nuggets vs Pelicans trend

The home team has won and covered in each of the last four meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Pelicans.

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