The Denver Nuggets will look to win their second game in three days over the Dallas Mavericks when they meet in a Western Conference matchup on Tuesday night. Denver defeated Dallas 112-101 on Sunday. The Nuggets (23-15), second in the Northwest Division and the fourth seed in the West, have won three in a row. The Mavericks (22-17), third in the Southwest Division and fifth seed in the conference, are 12-7 on their home court. Dallas will continue to be without point guard Luka Doncic, who suffered a calf strain on Christmas Day, while guard Kyrie Irving (back) is listed as questionable.

Tipoff from American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. Dallas leads the all-time regular-season series 98-94, but Denver has won two of three meetings this season. The Nuggets are 4-point favorites in the latest Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 233. Before making any Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 135-97 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.    

The model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Mavs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Mavs vs. Nuggets:

• Nuggets vs. Mavericks spread: Denver -4
• Nuggets vs. Mavericks over/under: 233 points   
• Nuggets vs. Mavericks money line: Denver -175, Dallas +146
• DEN: The Nuggets have hit the Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.80 units)  
• DAL: The Mavericks have hit the Under in 33 of their 48 home games (+16.50 units)  
• Nuggets vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Nuggets vs. Mavericks streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Nuggets can cover

Veteran center Nikola Jokic (probable, illness) is coming off a double-double in the win over the Mavericks on Sunday. He scored 19 points, while grabbing 18 rebounds and dishing out nine assists with three steals. He registered a triple-double in the 124-105 win over the Brooklyn Nets on Friday, scoring 35 points, 15 assists and 12 rebounds in 38 minutes. He has played in 33 games this season, all starts, and is averaging 31.2 points, 13.2 rebounds, 9.8 assists and 1.8 steals in 37.2 minutes.

Also powering the Nuggets is point guard Jamal Murray (probable, knee). In 32 starts, he is averaging 19 points, six assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 35.9 minutes. He is connecting on 43.5% of his field goals, including 37.2% from 3-point range, and 84.7% from the free throw line. He scored 17 points and added two rebounds and two assists in the win over Dallas on Sunday. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Without Doncic and potentially Irving, Dallas will turn to shooting guard Klay Thompson to help provide offense. In 34 games, all starts, he is averaging 14.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and two assists in 27.9 minutes. He is connecting on 41.3% of his field goals, including 38.5% from 3-point range, and 91.9% of his free throws. In the loss to the Nuggets on Sunday, he poured in 25 points, while grabbing six rebounds and dishing out two assists.

Also averaging double-digit scoring is power forward P.J. Washington. In 32 games, including 31 starts, he is averaging 13.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.3 steals in 32.4 minutes. In a 117-111 win over Portland on Jan. 9, he registered a double-double with 23 points, 14 rebounds and three steals. He had 17 points and 10 rebounds with five assists in a 119-104 loss at Memphis on Jan. 6. See which team to pick here.

How to make Nuggets vs. Mavericks picks

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning under on the total, projecting 224 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Nuggets vs. Mavericks, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 135-97 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.