The Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets will meet in a 2024 NBA Cup matchup on Friday night. Both teams are 1-1 in Cup play and trail Group C leader Golden State by one game. The Mavericks (8-7), tied for second in the Southwest Division, are 2-4 on the road this season. The Nuggets (8-5), second in the Northwest Division, are 5-2 on their home court. Denver power forward Aaron Gordon (calf) is out and could miss multiple weeks, while Nikola Jokic (personal) is listed as questionable. Dallas will be without point guard Luka Doncic (wrist).

Tip-off from Ball Arena in Denver is set for 10 p.m. ET. The Mavs lead the all-time regular-season series 97-93, but the Nuggets earned a 122-120 win on Nov. 10 in Denver. The Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Mavericks vs. Nuggets odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 227.5. Before making any Nuggets vs. Mavericks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 109-74 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns. 

The model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Nuggets vs. Mavs:

• Mavericks vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -2.5     
• Mavericks vs. Nuggets over/under: 227.5 points   
• Mavericks vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -144, Mavericks +122
• DAL: 9-6 ATS this season 
• DEN: 6-7 ATS this season 
• Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Knicks vs. Suns streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Nuggets can cover

Small forward Michael Porter Jr. is one of six Denver players averaging double-digit scoring. In 13 games, all starts, he is averaging 18.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 36.5 minutes of action. He is connecting on 47.9% of his field goals, including 38.5% from 3-point range, and 67.9% from the foul line. Porter is coming off a double-double with 24 points, 11 rebounds and three assists in a 122-110 win at Memphis on Tuesday in NBA Cup play.

Also helping lead the Nuggets is guard Christian Braun. The third-year veteran and former first-round selection is averaging 16.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.4 steals in 35.3 minutes. Braun has been red hot from the floor. He is connecting on 55% of his field goals, including 42.5% from 3-point range, and 81.3% from the free throw line. He is coming off a 19-point, seven-rebound, three-steal and two-assist effort in the win over Memphis on Tuesday. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Point guard Kyrie Irving is one of four Dallas players averaging double-digit scoring. In 14 games, all starts, he is averaging 24.3 points, 5.2 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 34.5 minutes. Irving is blistering the nets, connecting on 54.5% of his shots from the floor, including 53.8% from 3-point range, and 85.7% from the free throw line. In the first meeting at Denver, he scored 43 points and added five rebounds and five assists.

Shooting guard Klay Thompson is another weapon on offense for Dallas. In 15 games, all starts, he is averaging 14 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 28.7 minutes. He is coming off a 19-point and four-rebound performance in a 132-91 win over New Orleans on Tuesday. In a 120-117 loss at Golden State on Nov. 12, he poured in 22 points, while adding four rebounds and three assists. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 222 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 109-74 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.