We’ve got another exciting Western Conference matchup on the NBA schedule as the Denver Nuggets and the Dallas Mavericks are set to tip at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday at American Airlines Center. Dallas is 22-16 overall and 12-6 at home, while Denver is 22-15 overall and 10-8 on the road. These two teams have split their past 10 head-to-head meetings. 

The Nuggets are favored by 5.5 points in the latest Mavericks vs. Nuggets odds via SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 229.5 points. Before entering any Nuggets vs. Mavericks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 12 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 133-97 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Denver vs. Dallas. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:

• Mavericks vs. Nuggets spread: Mavericks +5.5
• Mavericks vs. Nuggets over/under: 229.5 points
• Mavericks vs. Nuggets money line: Mavericks: +184, Nuggets: -224
• Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks: See picks here

Why the Nuggets can cover 

The Nuggets are headed into Sunday’s showdown following a big win against the Nets on Friday. The Nuggets were the clear victor by a 124-105 margin over the Nets. The victory made it back-to-back wins for Denver.

Nikola Jokic was his usual excellent self, dropping a triple-double with 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 15 assists. For the season, Jokic is averaging 31.6 points, 13.0 rebounds and 9.9 assists per game. He’s knocking down 55.6% of his field goals and 47.7% of his 3-point attempts. Denver is 6-2 against the spread in its past eight games and 8-3 in its last 11 meetings against an opponent from the Western Conference. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover

The Mavericks didn’t have too much breathing room in their contest against the Trail Blazers on Thursday, but they still walked away with a 117-111 victory. Dallas was down 87-75 with 2:04 left in the third quarter but they came back for the much-needed win.

The Mavericks can attribute much of their success to Dereck Lively II, who dropped a double-double with 21 points and 16 rebounds, and P.J. Washington, who dropped a double-double with 23 points and 14 rebounds. Washington continues to be effective in the absence of Luka Doncic (calf), besting his previous point total in each of the last four games he’s played. For the season, Washington averages 13.4 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Nuggets vs. Mavericks, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 133-97 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.