Novak Djokovic will not defend his title at the Paris Masters 1000, which begins October 28 in the French capital.

Djokovic confirmed that he will not be playing the event on Instagram, writing that: “I have a lot of great memories winning seven titles there and hope to be back with you next year.”

The confirmation came days after reports in Serbian outlet Sportklub that his presence there and at the ATP Tour Finals in Turin, which starts on November 10, was in doubt. Djokovic deliberated over playing the event in those days, spending time with his family for his son’s birthday.

Djokovic will drop 1000 ranking points on November 4 as a result of missing the Paris Masters. If he misses the ATP Tour Finals too, he will drop a further 1300, taking him to 3910 points. That would currently place him at No. 8 in the world rankings. Were he placed there for the Australian Open draw, he could face either Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals of 2025’s first Grand Slam tournament.

By skipping the Paris Masters, he could also be overhauled in the so-called ‘Race to Turin,’ which would put him out of the ATP Tour Finals anyway. He is currently No. 6, with the top eight players qualifying for the year-end tournament. Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev can catch him with deep runs in Vienna this week, which is an ATP 500. Alex De Minaur, Tommy Paul and Grigor Dimitrov would need deep runs in Vienna and Paris to catch Djokovic; Paul lost to compatriot Brandon Nakashima in Vienna, denting his hopes of qualifying.

Djokovic won last year’s event in Paris by beating Dimitrov in the final and at the ATP Tour Finals, he beat Sinner in the final. That was the last time he defeated the current world No. 1, who has won all three of their meetings since.

Djokovic, 37, last week admitted that Rafael Nadal’s retirement announcement affected his appetite for competition, as did the retirement of Roger Federer at 41. “I still enjoy competing, but a part of me left with them,” he said on court in Shanghai.

A preview of Djokovic’s ranking vulnerability

Analysis from Matthew Futterman, senior tennis writer

Let’s play this out. Novak Djokovic doesn’t play Bercy and then misses the ATP Tour Finals, after winning both of those last year.

That means he drops 2300 points, which drops him to No. 8 as of now, before accounting for anyone else in and around him gaining points in either tournament. Some of them will gain some points, so Djokovic is likely to settle somewhere in the neighborhood of No. 8 to No. 12 for the start of 2025. That’s the zip code of Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud and Tommy Paul.

That would have him facing Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner as early as the fourth round in Melbourne; at best, he’d meet one of them in the quarterfinals. At this year’s tournament, he got to the semifinals before losing to Sinner, so he would have another net loss of ranking points and his ranking could drop further. Then the hard matches would come even earlier, and on and on it goes.

Djokovic has made it clear time and again that his rough idea of the final years of his career involve playing until he can’t make the last rounds of the biggest tournaments, or until he is continually getting his “butt kicked” by the younger set. He’s not about to hang around in the 30-60 region of the ATP rankings in the way a hobbled Andy Murray did the past two years.

Novak Djokovic on his way to beating Grigor Dimitrov at last year’s Paris Masters. (Dimitar Dilkoff / AFP via Getty Images)

The X factor in all of this – beyond the aging process that will eventually rid him of consistent access to all the things that constitute his best level — is Djokovic’s motivation. His brain works a little differently than just about anyone else’s. He loves the process of wandering a bit, uncertain if he will find something to relight the spark. He knows that finding that spark is far more than half the battle for him.

He also knows the consequences of not playing and falling in the rankings. He’s not going to wake up in Melbourne the morning of the draw and say, “What do you mean I’m seeded 9th?” There is undoubtedly a world where Djokovic just sees this as one more challenge that might ignite him, another way of proving people wrong.

You thought I couldn’t win unless I was seeded No. 1 or No. 2? Watch this.

GO DEEPER

Novak Djokovic needs new tennis quests. Can he find them in New York?

At some point, betting on Djokovic pulling off another miracle is going to become a stupid thing to do. I saw what he did to Alcaraz at the 2024 Paris Olympics in the gold medal match from the stands. I can still see those two massive forehands in the decisive tiebreak, one of them while he was sprinting across the baseline. Hands down, the shots of the year. Could he have won a third set that day? I don’t know. He didn’t have to.

Am I ready to start betting against him? I don’t think I am. Not if he’s still busy trying to find sources of motivation.

(Hu Chengwei / Getty Images)