Two historic programs are about to square off in the CFP semifinals, as Penn State and the Notre Dame football team will look to punch their ticket to the National Championship. Both schools made history and earned 13 wins on the season, which is the most wins in a single season in each of their program history.

However, when looking at the schedule and the path of both these schools, fans will quickly realize the tale of these two paths are much different. The Nittany Lions path to the CFP semifinals has been relatively straightforward and they have taken advantage of their cakewalk path.

Notre Dame path has been much more challenging. The Irish faced a Big 10 opponent in the Indiana Hoosiers and then had to defeat the SEC champion in Georgia. The Nittany Lions schedule seems to show that PSU could be a pretender and the Fighting Irish look to expose their glaring weaknesses.

Notre Dame football ready to burst Penn State’s CFP bubble

PSU and ND have two common opponents in Purdue and USC.  Notre Dame dominated Purdue 66-7, while Penn State managed a respectable 49-10 victory. Against USC, the Irish secured a 49-35 win and were even up 21 late, whereas Penn State needed overtime to defeat the Trojans 33-30.

The Nittany Lions have a glaring vulnerability and it has been exposed twice this year in their two losses against top10 teams. Penn State has been unable to win the big games under James Franklin. Franklin has built a solid program and has an impressive overall record of 101-41, but is 3-15 against the top 10 and is a depressing 1-10 against the top 5. The Fighting Irish technically are ranked fifth in the country and looks to add to the Penn State narrative of not being able to perform against the elite programs.

PSU was 1-15 against the top 10 entering the CFP before they defeated SMU, who ranked 40 in a strength of schedule, and Boise State, who ranked 66 in strength of schedule. That ranks 11 and 12 as the worst strength of schedules of the 12 teams in the playoffs.  SMU and Boise State have 0 wins against teams in the top 25. They rank 10 and 11 of the weakest strength of record of the 12 teams in the playoffs. The only team behind them is Clemson, who SMU lost to. So, it is safe to say that Penn State first two rounds have not been against a team that falls under the elite category.

A Matchup of Strengths and Weaknesses

Penn State quarterback, Drew Allar, has shown flashes of excellence this season but has struggled against the blitz in their big games. Allar threw two costly interceptions, including the game sealing pick against Oregon in the final two minutes. Well, Notre Dame defense ranks first in team passing efficiency at 94.1 and allows just 167.4 passing yards per game, which is fifth best in the nation and gives up only 13.6 points per game which is second best in FBS.  

Irish has one of the best secondary, as they are led by All-American Xavier Watts, who leads the nation in interceptions the last two seasons. Watts was named the defensive player of the game in the Sugar Bowl, as he had 37 coverage snaps, just was targeted one time and allowed zero yards. He had seven tackles, six were solo and one was for a loss.

A key struggle for PSU has been tackling all season as they rank fourth in the nation for most missed tackles in the power four. Over the last three weeks alone, they’ve missed 57 tackles, a stat that does not go well against a Notre Dame offense which averages 217.5 rushing yards per game, which is 11th best in the country and second best in power four. Irish also leads the power four with 4.2 yards after contact.

Notre Dame’s balanced approach has been a cornerstone of their success this season as they have dominated on the defensive side as they rank eighth in the nation in total yards allowed per game with 295.3 and have given up the fifth fewest touchdowns with 23. Their red zone defense ranks ninth by allowing points on just 73% of opponents trips and their third-down conversion defense is eighth, giving up just a 30% success rate.

On offense, the Irish average 37.7 points per game which is fourth best and boast a rushing attack that’s among the best in the country. Irish have won 12 straight games by a margin of 491-161.

Notre Dame has proven time and again this season that they’re built to compete with the best. Their combination of a high-powered offense and their suffocating defense is the best Penn State will see all season. Franklin is prone to lose these big matchup games and tends to collapse and fold in top 10 matchups.

As the two teams prepare to face off, the Fighting Irish look ready to burst Penn State’s CFP bubble and prove that the Nittany Lions are pretenders. This game is an opportunity to solidify Notre Dame football’s status as one of college football’s elite programs, but for Penn State, it may serve as yet another reminder of the gap they need to fill before they can claim themselves as an elite program.