Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel’s selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA’s Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, Feb. 15

Fair Grounds becomes the focal point of the racing world this weekend with a 14-race card headlined by the $500,000, Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes for 3-year-olds on the road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.

Fair Grounds, Race 12, $175,000 Fair Grounds Stakes Presented by Horse Racing Nation, post time 6:30 p.m. ET

This Grade 3 race going 1 1/8 miles on the turf drew 10 entrants for a purse of $175,000. The horse to beat is #2 Gigante, a Steve Asmussen trainee who established his turf credentials back in the summer of 2023 with a win in the Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes at Colonial Downs. Since then, he has undoubtedly done his best running on the Fair Grounds turf course, where he’s won two stakes in addition to a second-place finish in last year’s Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes Presented by Horse Racing Nation. The most recent of those stakes wins came two races ago on this course, and he even added an off-the-turf win in the Colonel E. R. Bradley Stakes last time out. For the exactas and trifectas, the top challengers in the field include #1 What Say Thee, a Mike Maker trainee with solid speed figures exiting a November turf mile win at Churchill Downs. He has won four of his last six races and six of his last nine. The other top challenger is #8 Taking Candy, a graded stakes-placed turf runner from the barn of trainer Cherie DeVaux who was just a half a length behind What Say Thee last time out with Irad Ortiz Jr. picking up the mount.

The Play: Bet on #2 Gigante (7-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 What Say Thee (9-2) and #8 Taking Candy (4-1).

Fair Grounds, Race 14, $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes, post time 7:30 p.m. ET

The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes has attracted a 13-horse field of 3-year-olds ready to race 1 1/8 miles. It can be said that the loaded field contains a dozen challengers versus one singular standout horse to beat, with #4 East Avenue ready to make his 2025 debut after a very promising start to his career last year. He won Keeneland’s Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity in front-running fashion in his second career start and was sent off favored in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, where a disastrous start cost him any and all chance. He’s a good bet to rebound in this spot, even as the favorite. The key to making money with East Avenue will depend on how we bet him, and my suggestion is to key him on top of three horses in the trifecta. Trainer Todd Pletcher is usually a major player in races like this and he ships in #3 Vassimo off of back-to-back wins in Florida to begin his career. Pletcher could have kept this horse at Tampa Bay Downs for last weekend’s $200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, but he evidently thinks enough of him to opt for a swing for fences in this spot. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. travels to Fair Grounds for the mount and the 8-1 morning-line odds represent an overlay. The most obvious challenger to East Avenue in the race is #2 Jonathan’s Way, another horse who disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but showed plenty of ability in other races, such as his win in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes and his second-place finish in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Finally, it seems that it’s way too early to give up on #9 Built based on his loss last time in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. He led from start to finish to win Fair Grounds’ $96,000 Gun Runner Stakes in December and then showed versatility from post-position 12 in the Lecomte when he came from off the pace to only miss by a neck to undefeated Disco Time.

The Play: Bet #4 East Avenue (9-5) to win and key him on top in trifectas with #2 Jonathan’s Way (4-1), #3 Vassimo (8-1), and #9 Built (5-1) underneath.