Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur will be hoping to remain in semifinal contention at the Nitto ATP Finals when they clash during Tuesday’s afternoon session in Turin, Italy.

They already have a voluminous head-to-head history, as this marks their 10th encounter. Medvedev has won six of their nine previous encounters, but De Minaur most recently got the job done 4-6, 6-2, 6-1, 6-3 at this season’s French Open. They have split their two previous indoor hard-court contests; Medvedev prevailed 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 at the 2020 Paris Masters before De Minaur scored a 6-4, 2-6, 7-5 victory at the exact same tournament two years later.

Respective current form should also give De Minaur plenty of confidence heading into this borderline must-win matchup. The Aussie is 47-20 this season and his record would probably be even better if not for a hip injury suffered at Wimbledon. Healthy now, De Minaur advanced to the Vienna semifinals and the Paris quarters. He had to face nemesis Jannik Sinner in his opening match in Turin and predictably lost in routine straight sets–an everyday occurrence in that matchup.

Seeing Medvedev on the other side of the net should be much more favorable for De Minaur. The fourth-ranked Russian has not won a single tournament this year and it looks like the drought will extend all the way to the finish line. Medvedev is an alarming 6-7 in his last 13 matches dating back to the U.S. Open and lost to Taylor Fritz 6-4, 6-3 on Sunday.

The 28-year-old went off the rails mentally late in the second set against Fritz–perhaps as a result of not only that match but also because of how things have transpired for him in recent months. It just feels like Medvedev has checked out of this season, whereas De Minaur will never give anything less than his best effort.

Pick: De Minaur in 3