Andrey Rublev had to do something he had not been able to do at the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals to have any chance of moving into the semifinals. That is he had to win a match, and he would have had to win in straight sets against Casper Ruud. Even if Rublev lost a single set, Ruud would move on and Rublev would be done.

The first set ended any drama. Rublev did not play poorly, but he played one bad service game when he committed several unforced errors. That was all Ruud needed to get the break, take a 4-3 lead in the set, and simply needing to hold serve to take the set 6-3. He clinched his semifinal spot by doing that.

Ruud has a history of being fairly successful at the ATP Finals. He has made the year-end tournament three times and has made the semifinals every time. He made the final in 2022 but lost to Novak Djokovic. No shame there.

On Saturday, Ruud will play top-ranked Jannik Sinner in the later of the two semifinals. In the first semi, Taylor Fritz will play Alexander Zverev. Zverev and Sinner have a chance to do something that Ruud and Fritz cannot, however. Neither Zverev nor Sinner have lost a match yet, while Fritz and Ruud had lost one entering Friday.

The ATP Finals champion will make quite a bit of money. $2,237,200, in fact. But an undefeated champion will make $4,881,500. As Zverev and Sinner are on opposite sides of the draw in the semifinals, tennis fans might get to see a final that features those players and one of them will win the big prize.

The year-end ATP top-three rankings are set no matter what happens the rest of the tournament. Sinner will finish as No. 1, Zverev will be No. 2, and Carlos Alcaraz will be No. 3. There could be a battle for Daniil Medvedev’s No. 4, though. Should Ruud or Fritz win the ATP Finals, they would move past Medvedev and into the top four.

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