The NFL is down to their version of the Final Four.

On Saturday the Kansas City Chiefs and the Washington Commanders punched their tickets to the AFC and the NFC Championship Games, respectively. On Sunday the Philadelphia Eagles and the Buffalo Bills/Baltimore Ravens joined them.

Four teams are left, but who has the best chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy in a few weeks?

As we have each week of the playoffs, we polled our writers and came up with the rankings. Here are the last four teams left standing in the NFL Playoffs, ranked by their likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.

4. Washington Commanders

To borrow a line from Geno Smith, everyone keeps writing the Washington Commanders off, but they have yet to write back.

When we ranked the 14 NFL Playoff teams ahead of Wild Card Weekend, the sixth-seeded Commanders checked in at number ten on that list. While that ranking did put them ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — who they defeated that weekend — they were the sixth of seven NFC teams.

When we conducted that very same exercise ahead of the Divisional Round games, they checked in seventh out of the eight teams.

Yet here they are, one of the last four standing in the league, and one of the last two standing in the NFC.

Jayden Daniels has been a revelation this season, and that has continued into the playoffs. He has played near-perfect football for Washington and excelled when blitzed, another sign of his tremendous growth as a rookie passer.

Add in an opportunistic defense, and a head coach who has learned from the mistakes of his past, and you have a winning recipe.

A recipe that could bake for a few more weeks.

3. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles might just be the most complete team left in the playoffs. This team has is able to morph itself to fit the situation and continues to find ways to thrive. The 2024 iteration of this team is based on two basic concepts: Have Saquon Barkley brutalize you on offense, and dominate the line of scrimmage on defense. It’s the new-old school NFL where running and trench work is supreme, and nobody is able to pull it off quite like the Eagles.

The big question mark around this team is what happens when (if) someone is able to stop Barkley? Jalen Hurts has had high points this year, but a lot of low as well. The quarterback hasn’t been nearly as successful as in past years as a passer, failing to reach 3,000 passing yards for the first time since being a rookie. A lot of that has to do with a change focus to the running game, but it’s still a bit of a worry if you’re a Philly fan.

This is now compounded by worries about injury, with Hurts getting banged up in the third quarter against the Rams and limping off the field. If he’s slowed that could be a problem.

2. Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is back in the AFC Championship game for the first time since the 2020 season, and once again they’re facing the Chiefs. A lot has changed in the past four years, but for Buffalo it’s all about No. 17 once more.

This season has been a masterclass by the Bills’ QB. A phenom through the air and ground, the offense flows entirely though Allen, asking him to win with hero ball more often than not. This has been the weakest supporting cast Allen has had in some time — and outside of running back James Cook it’s easy to overlook almost everyone on the offensive side of the ball.

However, where this team differs than the past is confidence. Instead of playing like a team worried about the Chiefs or Bengals, this year Buffalo has been secure in themselves and playing like a more mature organization. The vibes are high with this team, as we saw against the Ravens by forcing three turnovers that changed the face of the game.

There are some definite concerns here moving forward. The Bills’ pass rush isn’t as good as it should be, they have a secondary that gives up explosive plays, and if a defense can make interior pressure it takes away Allen’s comfort in the pocket and his ability to run up the middle.

On any given day Josh Allen is unstoppable though, and that makes Buffalo one of the most brutal teams to face that remains in the playoffs.

Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

1. Kansas City Chiefs

The march goes on.

The Kansas City Chiefs’ relentless pursuit of NFL history — the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls — continues for at least one more week. Kansas City smothered C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans on Saturday, led in part by a career game from pass rusher George Karlaftis, and the Chiefs head to their seventh straight AFC Championship Game.

Sure, questions may linger. Questions about their age, about the lack of explosiveness in the passing game, about luck running out, and about NFL history finally catching up with them at some point.

But to date, Kansas City has answered every single question thrown their way. Plus, the road to New Orleans runs through GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

And they still have #15, who is capable one any snap of delivering yet one more magical moment.